Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Hapoel Nazareth Illit vs Sektzia Nes Tziona — Liga Leumit 2019

Hapoel Nazareth Illit
Hapoel Nazareth Illit
FT
1 – 2
HT: 1 – 0
Sektzia Nes Tziona
Sektzia Nes Tziona
12/1/2023Liga LeumitLiga Leumit · Round 10Green Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 55+ matches

Hapoel Nazareth Illit44%
×Draw26%
Sektzia Nes Tziona30%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Hapoel Nazareth Illit
1.43
Sektzia Nes Tziona
1.14

Hapoel Nazareth Illit creates 25% more chances

Season form · 111 home / 55 away

creates per match

Hapoel Nazareth Illit
1.39
Sektzia Nes Tziona
1.13

allows per match

Hapoel Nazareth Illit
1.15
Sektzia Nes Tziona
1.47

finishing

Hapoel Nazareth Illit+0.00on par
Sektzia Nes Tziona+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Under
  • Under53
  • Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

52%Yes
  • Yes52
  • No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Hapoel Nazareth Illit ↓

Sektzia Nes Tziona →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–19%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–112%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
73%27%2.5
47%53%3.5
26%74%4.5
12%88%

Double chance

Hapoel Nazareth Illit or draw
70%
Hapoel Nazareth Illit or Sektzia Nes Tziona
74%
Draw or Sektzia Nes Tziona
56%

Winning margin

Hapoel Nazareth Illit wins by 2+
21%
Sektzia Nes Tziona wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Hapoel Nazareth Illit 1+ goals
76%
Hapoel Nazareth Illit 2+ goals
42%
Hapoel Nazareth Illit 3+ goals
17%
Sektzia Nes Tziona 1+ goals
68%
Sektzia Nes Tziona 2+ goals
32%
Sektzia Nes Tziona 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Hapoel Nazareth Illit (draw refunded)
59%
Sektzia Nes Tziona (draw refunded)
41%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
39%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Hapoel Nazareth Illit at home — creates 1.39, concedes 1.15 · 111 matches

Sektzia Nes Tziona away — creates 1.13, concedes 1.47 · 55 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Hapoel Nazareth Illit attack 1.39 + Sektzia Nes Tziona defence 1.47 → ÷2 → 1.43

Sektzia Nes Tziona attack 1.13 + Hapoel Nazareth Illit defence 1.15 → ÷2 → 1.14

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Hapoel Nazareth Illit scores more
44%
level
26%
Sektzia Nes Tziona scores more
30%

Hapoel Nazareth Illit at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Hapoel Nazareth Illit will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Liga Leumit: Hapoel Nazareth Illit 1–2 Sektzia Nes Tziona

Sektzia Nes Tziona beat Hapoel Nazareth Illit 2-1 in Liga Leumit on December 1, 2023.

The match was played at Green Stadium in Nazareth Illit.