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Sektzia Nes Tziona vs Hapoel Kfar Saba — Liga Leumit 2019

Sektzia Nes Tziona
Sektzia Nes Tziona
FT
3 – 2
HT: 2 – 0
Hapoel Kfar Saba
Hapoel Kfar Saba
3/28/2022Liga LeumitLiga Leumit · Promotion Round - 1Nes Tziona Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 56+ matches

Sektzia Nes Tziona41%
×Draw27%
Hapoel Kfar Saba32%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Sektzia Nes Tziona
1.33
Hapoel Kfar Saba
1.15

Sektzia Nes Tziona creates 16% more chances

Season form · 56 home / 95 away

creates per match

Sektzia Nes Tziona
1.39
Hapoel Kfar Saba
1.25

allows per match

Sektzia Nes Tziona
1.05
Hapoel Kfar Saba
1.28

finishing

Sektzia Nes Tziona+0.00on par
Hapoel Kfar Saba+0.00on par

Total goals

55%Under
  • Under55
  • Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

50%No
  • No50
  • Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sektzia Nes Tziona ↓

Hapoel Kfar Saba →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–110%
0–26%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–113%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
71%29%2.5
45%55%3.5
24%76%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Sektzia Nes Tziona or draw
68%
Sektzia Nes Tziona or Hapoel Kfar Saba
73%
Draw or Hapoel Kfar Saba
59%

Winning margin

Sektzia Nes Tziona wins by 2+
19%
Hapoel Kfar Saba wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

Sektzia Nes Tziona 1+ goals
74%
Sektzia Nes Tziona 2+ goals
38%
Sektzia Nes Tziona 3+ goals
15%
Hapoel Kfar Saba 1+ goals
68%
Hapoel Kfar Saba 2+ goals
32%
Hapoel Kfar Saba 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Sektzia Nes Tziona (draw refunded)
56%
Hapoel Kfar Saba (draw refunded)
44%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
37%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sektzia Nes Tziona at home — creates 1.39, concedes 1.05 · 56 matches

Hapoel Kfar Saba away — creates 1.25, concedes 1.28 · 95 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sektzia Nes Tziona attack 1.39 + Hapoel Kfar Saba defence 1.28 → ÷2 → 1.33

Hapoel Kfar Saba attack 1.25 + Sektzia Nes Tziona defence 1.05 → ÷2 → 1.15

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Sektzia Nes Tziona scores more
41%
level
27%
Hapoel Kfar Saba scores more
32%

Sektzia Nes Tziona at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Sektzia Nes Tziona will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Sektzia Nes Tziona vs Hapoel Kfar Saba

Sektzia Nes Tziona beat Hapoel Kfar Saba 3-2 in Liga Leumit on March 28, 2022.

The match was played at Nes Tziona Stadium in Ness Ziona.