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Hapoel Kfar Saba vs Sektzia Nes Tziona — Liga Leumit 2019

Hapoel Kfar Saba
Hapoel Kfar Saba
FT
2 – 2
HT: 0 – 2
Sektzia Nes Tziona
Sektzia Nes Tziona
3/29/2024Liga LeumitLiga Leumit · Round 28Levita Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 55+ matches

Hapoel Kfar Saba40%
×Draw26%
Sektzia Nes Tziona34%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Hapoel Kfar Saba
1.35
Sektzia Nes Tziona
1.23

Hapoel Kfar Saba creates 10% more chances

Season form · 90 home / 55 away

creates per match

Hapoel Kfar Saba
1.23
Sektzia Nes Tziona
1.13

allows per match

Hapoel Kfar Saba
1.33
Sektzia Nes Tziona
1.47

finishing

Hapoel Kfar Saba+0.00on par
Sektzia Nes Tziona+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Under
  • Under52
  • Over48

Close call

Both teams score

52%Yes
  • Yes52
  • No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Hapoel Kfar Saba ↓

Sektzia Nes Tziona →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–19%
0–26%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
73%27%2.5
48%52%3.5
26%74%4.5
12%88%

Double chance

Hapoel Kfar Saba or draw
66%
Hapoel Kfar Saba or Sektzia Nes Tziona
74%
Draw or Sektzia Nes Tziona
60%

Winning margin

Hapoel Kfar Saba wins by 2+
18%
Sektzia Nes Tziona wins by 2+
14%

Team goals

Hapoel Kfar Saba 1+ goals
74%
Hapoel Kfar Saba 2+ goals
39%
Hapoel Kfar Saba 3+ goals
15%
Sektzia Nes Tziona 1+ goals
71%
Sektzia Nes Tziona 2+ goals
35%
Sektzia Nes Tziona 3+ goals
13%

Draw no bet

Hapoel Kfar Saba (draw refunded)
54%
Sektzia Nes Tziona (draw refunded)
46%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
40%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Hapoel Kfar Saba at home — creates 1.23, concedes 1.33 · 90 matches

Sektzia Nes Tziona away — creates 1.13, concedes 1.47 · 55 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Hapoel Kfar Saba attack 1.23 + Sektzia Nes Tziona defence 1.47 → ÷2 → 1.35

Sektzia Nes Tziona attack 1.13 + Hapoel Kfar Saba defence 1.33 → ÷2 → 1.23

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Hapoel Kfar Saba scores more
40%
level
26%
Sektzia Nes Tziona scores more
34%

Hapoel Kfar Saba at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Hapoel Kfar Saba will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Liga Leumit: Hapoel Kfar Saba 2–2 Sektzia Nes Tziona

Hapoel Kfar Saba and Sektzia Nes Tziona drew 2-2 in Liga Leumit on March 29, 2024.

The match was played at Levita Stadium in Kfar-Saba.