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Sektzia Nes Tziona vs Hapoel Afula — Liga Leumit 2019

Sektzia Nes Tziona
Sektzia Nes Tziona
FT
0 – 2
HT: 0 – 0
Hapoel Afula
Hapoel Afula
5/17/2024Liga LeumitLiga Leumit · Relegation Round - 6Nes Tziona Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 56+ matches

Sektzia Nes Tziona48%
×Draw26%
Hapoel Afula26%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Sektzia Nes Tziona
1.50
Hapoel Afula
1.04

Sektzia Nes Tziona creates 44% more chances

Season form · 56 home / 129 away

creates per match

Sektzia Nes Tziona
1.39
Hapoel Afula
1.02

allows per match

Sektzia Nes Tziona
1.05
Hapoel Afula
1.61

finishing

Sektzia Nes Tziona+0.00on par
Hapoel Afula+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Under
  • Under53
  • Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

50%No
  • No50
  • Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sektzia Nes Tziona ↓

Hapoel Afula →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–18%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–112%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
72%28%2.5
47%53%3.5
25%75%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Sektzia Nes Tziona or draw
74%
Sektzia Nes Tziona or Hapoel Afula
74%
Draw or Hapoel Afula
52%

Winning margin

Sektzia Nes Tziona wins by 2+
24%
Hapoel Afula wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Sektzia Nes Tziona 1+ goals
78%
Sektzia Nes Tziona 2+ goals
44%
Sektzia Nes Tziona 3+ goals
19%
Hapoel Afula 1+ goals
65%
Hapoel Afula 2+ goals
28%
Hapoel Afula 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Sektzia Nes Tziona (draw refunded)
65%
Hapoel Afula (draw refunded)
35%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
38%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sektzia Nes Tziona at home — creates 1.39, concedes 1.05 · 56 matches

Hapoel Afula away — creates 1.02, concedes 1.61 · 129 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sektzia Nes Tziona attack 1.39 + Hapoel Afula defence 1.61 → ÷2 → 1.50

Hapoel Afula attack 1.02 + Sektzia Nes Tziona defence 1.05 → ÷2 → 1.04

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Sektzia Nes Tziona scores more
48%
level
26%
Hapoel Afula scores more
26%

Sektzia Nes Tziona at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Sektzia Nes Tziona will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Liga Leumit: Sektzia Nes Tziona 0–2 Hapoel Afula

Hapoel Afula beat Sektzia Nes Tziona 2-0 in Liga Leumit on May 17, 2024.

The match was played at Nes Tziona Stadium in Ness Ziona.