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Hapoel Afula vs Sektzia Nes Tziona — Liga Leumit 2019

Hapoel Afula
Hapoel Afula
FT
1 – 4
HT: 1 – 2
Sektzia Nes Tziona
Sektzia Nes Tziona
3/11/2022Liga LeumitLiga Leumit · Round 29Afula Illit Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 55+ matches

Hapoel Afula40%
×Draw27%
Sektzia Nes Tziona33%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Hapoel Afula
1.34
Sektzia Nes Tziona
1.20

Hapoel Afula creates 12% more chances

Season form · 132 home / 55 away

creates per match

Hapoel Afula
1.21
Sektzia Nes Tziona
1.13

allows per match

Hapoel Afula
1.27
Sektzia Nes Tziona
1.47

finishing

Hapoel Afula+0.00on par
Sektzia Nes Tziona+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Under
  • Under53
  • Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

52%Yes
  • Yes52
  • No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Hapoel Afula ↓

Sektzia Nes Tziona →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–19%
0–26%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
72%28%2.5
47%53%3.5
25%75%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Hapoel Afula or draw
67%
Hapoel Afula or Sektzia Nes Tziona
73%
Draw or Sektzia Nes Tziona
60%

Winning margin

Hapoel Afula wins by 2+
18%
Sektzia Nes Tziona wins by 2+
14%

Team goals

Hapoel Afula 1+ goals
74%
Hapoel Afula 2+ goals
39%
Hapoel Afula 3+ goals
15%
Sektzia Nes Tziona 1+ goals
70%
Sektzia Nes Tziona 2+ goals
34%
Sektzia Nes Tziona 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

Hapoel Afula (draw refunded)
55%
Sektzia Nes Tziona (draw refunded)
45%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
39%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Hapoel Afula at home — creates 1.21, concedes 1.27 · 132 matches

Sektzia Nes Tziona away — creates 1.13, concedes 1.47 · 55 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Hapoel Afula attack 1.21 + Sektzia Nes Tziona defence 1.47 → ÷2 → 1.34

Sektzia Nes Tziona attack 1.13 + Hapoel Afula defence 1.27 → ÷2 → 1.20

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Hapoel Afula scores more
40%
level
27%
Sektzia Nes Tziona scores more
33%

Hapoel Afula at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Hapoel Afula will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Hapoel Afula vs Sektzia Nes Tziona

Sektzia Nes Tziona beat Hapoel Afula 4-1 in Liga Leumit on March 11, 2022.

The match was played at Afula Illit Stadium in Afula.