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Sekirovo Rakovski vs Gigant Saedinenie — Third League - Southeast 2018

Sekirovo Rakovski
Sekirovo Rakovski
FT
4 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Gigant Saedinenie
Gigant Saedinenie
11/16/2024Third League - SoutheastThird League - Southeast · Southeast - 17Stadion Peter Parchevich

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 56+ matches

Sekirovo Rakovski43%
×Draw26%
Gigant Saedinenie31%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Sekirovo Rakovski
1.48
Gigant Saedinenie
1.22

Sekirovo Rakovski creates 21% more chances

Season form · 56 home / 136 away

creates per match

Sekirovo Rakovski
1.55
Gigant Saedinenie
1.17

allows per match

Sekirovo Rakovski
1.27
Gigant Saedinenie
1.42

finishing

Sekirovo Rakovski+0.00on par
Gigant Saedinenie+0.00on par

Total goals

51%Over
  • Over51
  • Under49

Close call

Both teams score

54%Yes
  • Yes54
  • No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sekirovo Rakovski ↓

Gigant Saedinenie →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–18%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–112%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
75%25%2.5
51%49%3.5
29%71%4.5
14%86%

Double chance

Sekirovo Rakovski or draw
69%
Sekirovo Rakovski or Gigant Saedinenie
74%
Draw or Gigant Saedinenie
57%

Winning margin

Sekirovo Rakovski wins by 2+
21%
Gigant Saedinenie wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

Sekirovo Rakovski 1+ goals
77%
Sekirovo Rakovski 2+ goals
43%
Sekirovo Rakovski 3+ goals
19%
Gigant Saedinenie 1+ goals
70%
Gigant Saedinenie 2+ goals
34%
Gigant Saedinenie 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

Sekirovo Rakovski (draw refunded)
58%
Gigant Saedinenie (draw refunded)
42%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
42%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sekirovo Rakovski at home — creates 1.55, concedes 1.27 · 56 matches

Gigant Saedinenie away — creates 1.17, concedes 1.42 · 136 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sekirovo Rakovski attack 1.55 + Gigant Saedinenie defence 1.42 → ÷2 → 1.48

Gigant Saedinenie attack 1.17 + Sekirovo Rakovski defence 1.27 → ÷2 → 1.22

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Sekirovo Rakovski scores more
43%
level
26%
Gigant Saedinenie scores more
31%

Sekirovo Rakovski at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Sekirovo Rakovski will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Sekirovo Rakovski vs Gigant Saedinenie

Sekirovo Rakovski beat Gigant Saedinenie 4-1 in Third League - Southeast on November 16, 2024.

The match was played at Stadion Peter Parchevich in Rakovski.