Gigant Saedinenie 4–1 Sekirovo Rakovski

Gigant Saedinenie

FT

4 – 1

Sekirovo Rakovski

2/24/2024

Third League - Southeast · Southeast - 21Gradski Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 56+ matches

Gigant Saedinenie64%

×Draw21%

Sekirovo Rakovski15%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Gigant SaedinenieExpected goals in this matchSekirovo Rakovski

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.95

0.83

Gigant Saedinenie

1.95

Sekirovo Rakovski

0.83

Gigant Saedinenie creates 135% more chances

Season form · 135 home / 56 away

1.83

creates per match

0.93

0.74

allows per match

2.07

creates per match

Gigant Saedinenie

1.83

Sekirovo Rakovski

0.93

allows per match

Gigant Saedinenie

0.74

Sekirovo Rakovski

2.07

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Gigant Saedinenie+0.00on par

Sekirovo Rakovski+0.00on par

Total goals

Over52
Under48

Close call

Both teams score

No52
Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Gigant Saedinenie ↓

Sekirovo Rakovski →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–15%

0–22%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–012%

1–110%

1–24%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–012%

2–110%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–08%

3–16%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–04%

4–13%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

76%24%2.5

52%48%3.5

30%70%4.5

15%85%

Double chance

Gigant Saedinenie or draw

85%

Gigant Saedinenie or Sekirovo Rakovski

79%

Draw or Sekirovo Rakovski

36%

Winning margin

Gigant Saedinenie wins by 2+

38%

Sekirovo Rakovski wins by 2+

5%

Team goals

Gigant Saedinenie 1+ goals

86%

Gigant Saedinenie 2+ goals

58%

Gigant Saedinenie 3+ goals

31%

Sekirovo Rakovski 1+ goals

56%

Sekirovo Rakovski 2+ goals

20%

Sekirovo Rakovski 3+ goals

5%

Draw no bet

Gigant Saedinenie (draw refunded)

81%

Sekirovo Rakovski (draw refunded)

19%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

38%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Gigant Saedinenie at home — creates 1.83, concedes 0.74 · 135 matches

Sekirovo Rakovski away — creates 0.93, concedes 2.07 · 56 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Gigant Saedinenie attack 1.83 + Sekirovo Rakovski defence 2.07 → ÷2 → 1.95

Sekirovo Rakovski attack 0.93 + Gigant Saedinenie defence 0.74 → ÷2 → 0.83

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 64%?"

Gigant Saedinenie scores more

64%

level

21%

Sekirovo Rakovski scores more

15%

Gigant Saedinenie at 64% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 64% does not mean "Gigant Saedinenie will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff