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Sekirovo Rakovski vs Botev Plovdiv III — Third League - Southeast 2018

Sekirovo Rakovski
Sekirovo Rakovski
FT
2 – 1
Botev Plovdiv III
Botev Plovdiv III
3/15/2025Third League - SoutheastThird League - Southeast · Southeast - 24Stadion Peter Parchevich

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 19+ matches

Sekirovo Rakovski52%
×Draw23%
Botev Plovdiv III25%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Sekirovo Rakovski
1.85
Botev Plovdiv III
1.21

Sekirovo Rakovski creates 53% more chances

Season form · 56 home / 19 away

creates per match

Sekirovo Rakovski
1.55
Botev Plovdiv III
1.16

allows per match

Sekirovo Rakovski
1.27
Botev Plovdiv III
2.16

finishing

Sekirovo Rakovski+0.00on par
Botev Plovdiv III+0.00on par

Total goals

59%Over
  • Over59
  • Under41

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

59%Yes
  • Yes59
  • No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sekirovo Rakovski ↓

Botev Plovdiv III →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–16%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–09%
1–111%
1–26%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–110%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–16%
3–24%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
81%19%2.5
59%41%3.5
36%64%4.5
19%81%

Double chance

Sekirovo Rakovski or draw
75%
Sekirovo Rakovski or Botev Plovdiv III
77%
Draw or Botev Plovdiv III
48%

Winning margin

Sekirovo Rakovski wins by 2+
29%
Botev Plovdiv III wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Sekirovo Rakovski 1+ goals
84%
Sekirovo Rakovski 2+ goals
55%
Sekirovo Rakovski 3+ goals
28%
Botev Plovdiv III 1+ goals
70%
Botev Plovdiv III 2+ goals
34%
Botev Plovdiv III 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

Sekirovo Rakovski (draw refunded)
68%
Botev Plovdiv III (draw refunded)
32%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
49%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sekirovo Rakovski at home — creates 1.55, concedes 1.27 · 56 matches

Botev Plovdiv III away — creates 1.16, concedes 2.16 · 19 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sekirovo Rakovski attack 1.55 + Botev Plovdiv III defence 2.16 → ÷2 → 1.85

Botev Plovdiv III attack 1.16 + Sekirovo Rakovski defence 1.27 → ÷2 → 1.21

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

Sekirovo Rakovski scores more
52%
level
23%
Botev Plovdiv III scores more
25%

Sekirovo Rakovski at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "Sekirovo Rakovski will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Third League - Southeast: Sekirovo Rakovski 2–1 Botev Plovdiv III

Sekirovo Rakovski beat Botev Plovdiv III 2-1 in Third League - Southeast on March 15, 2025.

The match was played at Stadion Peter Parchevich in Rakovski.