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Botev Plovdiv III vs Sekirovo Rakovski — Third League - Southeast 2018

Botev Plovdiv III
Botev Plovdiv III
FT
1 – 1
Sekirovo Rakovski
Sekirovo Rakovski
8/31/2024Third League - SoutheastThird League - Southeast · Southeast - 5Plovdiv Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 19+ matches

Botev Plovdiv III49%
×Draw25%
Sekirovo Rakovski27%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Botev Plovdiv III
1.64
Sekirovo Rakovski
1.15

Botev Plovdiv III creates 43% more chances

Season form · 19 home / 56 away

creates per match

Botev Plovdiv III
1.21
Sekirovo Rakovski
0.93

allows per match

Botev Plovdiv III
1.37
Sekirovo Rakovski
2.07

finishing

Botev Plovdiv III+0.00on par
Sekirovo Rakovski+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Over
  • Over53
  • Under47

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

55%Yes
  • Yes55
  • No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Botev Plovdiv III ↓

Sekirovo Rakovski →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–17%
0–24%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–010%
1–112%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
77%23%2.5
53%47%3.5
30%70%4.5
15%85%

Double chance

Botev Plovdiv III or draw
73%
Botev Plovdiv III or Sekirovo Rakovski
75%
Draw or Sekirovo Rakovski
51%

Winning margin

Botev Plovdiv III wins by 2+
26%
Sekirovo Rakovski wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Botev Plovdiv III 1+ goals
81%
Botev Plovdiv III 2+ goals
49%
Botev Plovdiv III 3+ goals
23%
Sekirovo Rakovski 1+ goals
68%
Sekirovo Rakovski 2+ goals
32%
Sekirovo Rakovski 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Botev Plovdiv III (draw refunded)
65%
Sekirovo Rakovski (draw refunded)
35%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
43%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Botev Plovdiv III at home — creates 1.21, concedes 1.37 · 19 matches

Sekirovo Rakovski away — creates 0.93, concedes 2.07 · 56 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Botev Plovdiv III attack 1.21 + Sekirovo Rakovski defence 2.07 → ÷2 → 1.64

Sekirovo Rakovski attack 0.93 + Botev Plovdiv III defence 1.37 → ÷2 → 1.15

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

Botev Plovdiv III scores more
49%
level
25%
Sekirovo Rakovski scores more
27%

Botev Plovdiv III at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Botev Plovdiv III will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Third League - Southeast: Botev Plovdiv III 1–1 Sekirovo Rakovski

Botev Plovdiv III and Sekirovo Rakovski drew 1-1 in Third League - Southeast on August 31, 2024.

The match was played at Plovdiv Stadium in Plovdiv.