Sekirovo Rakovski 0–0 Botev Plovdiv II

Sekirovo Rakovski

FT

0 – 0

Botev Plovdiv II

10/11/2023

Third League - Southeast · Southeast - 12Stadion Peter Parchevich

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 19+ matches

Sekirovo Rakovski38%

×Draw25%

Botev Plovdiv II36%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Sekirovo RakovskiExpected goals in this matchBotev Plovdiv II

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.41

1.37

Sekirovo Rakovski

1.41

Botev Plovdiv II

1.37

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 56 home / 19 away

1.55

creates per match

1.47

1.27

allows per match

1.26

creates per match

Sekirovo Rakovski

1.55

Botev Plovdiv II

1.47

allows per match

Sekirovo Rakovski

1.27

Botev Plovdiv II

1.26

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Sekirovo Rakovski+0.00on par

Botev Plovdiv II+0.00on par

Total goals

Over53
Under47

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes56
No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sekirovo Rakovski ↓

Botev Plovdiv II →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–19%

0–26%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–09%

1–112%

1–28%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–18%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

77%23%2.5

53%47%3.5

30%70%4.5

15%85%

Double chance

Sekirovo Rakovski or draw

64%

Sekirovo Rakovski or Botev Plovdiv II

75%

Draw or Botev Plovdiv II

62%

Winning margin

Sekirovo Rakovski wins by 2+

18%

Botev Plovdiv II wins by 2+

17%

Team goals

Sekirovo Rakovski 1+ goals

76%

Sekirovo Rakovski 2+ goals

41%

Sekirovo Rakovski 3+ goals

17%

Botev Plovdiv II 1+ goals

75%

Botev Plovdiv II 2+ goals

40%

Botev Plovdiv II 3+ goals

16%

Draw no bet

Sekirovo Rakovski (draw refunded)

51%

Botev Plovdiv II (draw refunded)

49%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

44%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sekirovo Rakovski at home — creates 1.55, concedes 1.27 · 56 matches

Botev Plovdiv II away — creates 1.47, concedes 1.26 · 19 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sekirovo Rakovski attack 1.55 + Botev Plovdiv II defence 1.26 → ÷2 → 1.41

Botev Plovdiv II attack 1.47 + Sekirovo Rakovski defence 1.27 → ÷2 → 1.37

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Sekirovo Rakovski scores more

38%

level

25%

Botev Plovdiv II scores more

36%

Sekirovo Rakovski at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Sekirovo Rakovski will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff