Botev Plovdiv II 0–0 Sekirovo Rakovski

Botev Plovdiv II

FT

0 – 0

Sekirovo Rakovski

4/20/2024

Third League - Southeast · Southeast - 31Nikola Shterev-Starika Complex

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 19+ matches

Botev Plovdiv II64%

×Draw18%

Sekirovo Rakovski18%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Botev Plovdiv IIExpected goals in this matchSekirovo Rakovski

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.51

1.28

Botev Plovdiv II

2.51

Sekirovo Rakovski

1.28

Botev Plovdiv II creates 96% more chances

Season form · 19 home / 56 away

2.95

creates per match

0.93

1.63

allows per match

2.07

creates per match

Botev Plovdiv II

2.95

Sekirovo Rakovski

0.93

allows per match

Botev Plovdiv II

1.63

Sekirovo Rakovski

2.07

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Botev Plovdiv II+0.00on par

Sekirovo Rakovski+0.00on par

Total goals

Over73
Under27

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes66
No34

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Botev Plovdiv II ↓

Sekirovo Rakovski →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–02%

0–13%

0–22%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–06%

1–17%

1–25%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–06%

3–18%

3–25%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–04%

4–15%

4–23%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 89% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

98%2%1.5

89%11%2.5

73%27%3.5

52%48%4.5

32%68%

Double chance

Botev Plovdiv II or draw

82%

Botev Plovdiv II or Sekirovo Rakovski

82%

Draw or Sekirovo Rakovski

36%

Winning margin

Botev Plovdiv II wins by 2+

42%

Sekirovo Rakovski wins by 2+

7%

Team goals

Botev Plovdiv II 1+ goals

92%

Botev Plovdiv II 2+ goals

71%

Botev Plovdiv II 3+ goals

45%

Sekirovo Rakovski 1+ goals

72%

Sekirovo Rakovski 2+ goals

37%

Sekirovo Rakovski 3+ goals

14%

Draw no bet

Botev Plovdiv II (draw refunded)

78%

Sekirovo Rakovski (draw refunded)

22%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

59%

Both score & under 3

7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Botev Plovdiv II at home — creates 2.95, concedes 1.63 · 19 matches

Sekirovo Rakovski away — creates 0.93, concedes 2.07 · 56 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Botev Plovdiv II attack 2.95 + Sekirovo Rakovski defence 2.07 → ÷2 → 2.51

Sekirovo Rakovski attack 0.93 + Botev Plovdiv II defence 1.63 → ÷2 → 1.28

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 64%?"

Botev Plovdiv II scores more

64%

level

18%

Sekirovo Rakovski scores more

18%

Botev Plovdiv II at 64% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 64% does not mean "Botev Plovdiv II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff