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Sekhukhune United vs Kaizer Chiefs — Premier Soccer League 2018

Sekhukhune United
Sekhukhune United
FT
1 – 1
HT: 1 – 0
Kaizer Chiefs
Kaizer Chiefs
12/30/2023Premier Soccer LeaguePremier Soccer League · Round 13Peter Mokaba Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 74+ matches

Sekhukhune United36%
×Draw31%
Kaizer Chiefs32%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Sekhukhune United
1.01
Kaizer Chiefs
0.94

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 74 home / 119 away

creates per match

Sekhukhune United
1.07
Kaizer Chiefs
1.07

allows per match

Sekhukhune United
0.81
Kaizer Chiefs
0.95

finishing

Sekhukhune United+0.00on par
Kaizer Chiefs+0.00on par

Total goals

69%Under
  • Under69
  • Over31

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

61%No
  • No61
  • Yes39

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sekhukhune United ↓

Kaizer Chiefs →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–014%
0–113%
0–26%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–014%
1–114%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–07%
2–17%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–02%
3–12%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–0 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
86%14%1.5
58%42%2.5
31%69%3.5
13%87%4.5
5%95%

Double chance

Sekhukhune United or draw
68%
Sekhukhune United or Kaizer Chiefs
69%
Draw or Kaizer Chiefs
64%

Winning margin

Sekhukhune United wins by 2+
14%
Kaizer Chiefs wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Sekhukhune United 1+ goals
64%
Sekhukhune United 2+ goals
27%
Sekhukhune United 3+ goals
8%
Kaizer Chiefs 1+ goals
61%
Kaizer Chiefs 2+ goals
24%
Kaizer Chiefs 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Sekhukhune United (draw refunded)
53%
Kaizer Chiefs (draw refunded)
47%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
25%
Both score & under 3
14%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sekhukhune United at home — creates 1.07, concedes 0.81 · 74 matches

Kaizer Chiefs away — creates 1.07, concedes 0.95 · 119 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sekhukhune United attack 1.07 + Kaizer Chiefs defence 0.95 → ÷2 → 1.01

Kaizer Chiefs attack 1.07 + Sekhukhune United defence 0.81 → ÷2 → 0.94

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 36%?"

Sekhukhune United scores more
36%
level
31%
Kaizer Chiefs scores more
32%

Sekhukhune United at 36% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 36% does not mean "Sekhukhune United will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Sekhukhune United vs Kaizer Chiefs

Sekhukhune United and Kaizer Chiefs drew 1-1 in Premier Soccer League on December 30, 2023.

The match was played at Peter Mokaba Stadium in Pietersburg.