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Kaizer Chiefs vs Sekhukhune United — Premier Soccer League 2018

Kaizer Chiefs
Kaizer Chiefs
FT
1 – 3
HT: 1 – 1
Sekhukhune United
Sekhukhune United
9/16/2025Premier Soccer LeaguePremier Soccer League · Round 6First National Bank Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 75+ matches

Kaizer Chiefs38%
×Draw30%
Sekhukhune United32%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Kaizer Chiefs
1.08
Sekhukhune United
0.97

Kaizer Chiefs creates 11% more chances

Season form · 120 home / 75 away

creates per match

Kaizer Chiefs
1.16
Sekhukhune United
0.91

allows per match

Kaizer Chiefs
1.02
Sekhukhune United
1.00

finishing

Kaizer Chiefs+0.00on par
Sekhukhune United+0.00on par

Total goals

66%Under
  • Under66
  • Over34

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

59%No
  • No59
  • Yes41

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Kaizer Chiefs ↓

Sekhukhune United →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–013%
0–112%
0–26%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–014%
1–113%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–17%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
87%13%1.5
61%39%2.5
34%66%3.5
15%85%4.5
6%94%

Double chance

Kaizer Chiefs or draw
68%
Kaizer Chiefs or Sekhukhune United
70%
Draw or Sekhukhune United
62%

Winning margin

Kaizer Chiefs wins by 2+
15%
Sekhukhune United wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Kaizer Chiefs 1+ goals
66%
Kaizer Chiefs 2+ goals
29%
Kaizer Chiefs 3+ goals
10%
Sekhukhune United 1+ goals
62%
Sekhukhune United 2+ goals
25%
Sekhukhune United 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Kaizer Chiefs (draw refunded)
54%
Sekhukhune United (draw refunded)
46%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
28%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Kaizer Chiefs at home — creates 1.16, concedes 1.02 · 120 matches

Sekhukhune United away — creates 0.91, concedes 1.00 · 75 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Kaizer Chiefs attack 1.16 + Sekhukhune United defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.08

Sekhukhune United attack 0.91 + Kaizer Chiefs defence 1.02 → ÷2 → 0.97

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Kaizer Chiefs scores more
38%
level
30%
Sekhukhune United scores more
32%

Kaizer Chiefs at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Kaizer Chiefs will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Kaizer Chiefs vs Sekhukhune United

Sekhukhune United beat Kaizer Chiefs 3-1 in Premier Soccer League on September 16, 2025.

The match was played at First National Bank Stadium in Johannesburg.