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Sekhukhune United vs Ajax Cape Town — Premier Soccer League 2018

Sekhukhune United
Sekhukhune United
FT
1 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Ajax Cape Town
Ajax Cape Town
4/20/2024Premier Soccer LeaguePremier Soccer League · Round 19Peter Mokaba Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 19+ matches

Sekhukhune United45%
×Draw30%
Ajax Cape Town25%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Sekhukhune United
1.22
Ajax Cape Town
0.82

Sekhukhune United creates 49% more chances

Season form · 74 home / 19 away

creates per match

Sekhukhune United
1.07
Ajax Cape Town
0.84

allows per match

Sekhukhune United
0.81
Ajax Cape Town
1.37

finishing

Sekhukhune United+0.00on par
Ajax Cape Town+0.00on par

Total goals

67%Under
  • Under67
  • Over33

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

61%No
  • No61
  • Yes39

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sekhukhune United ↓

Ajax Cape Town →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–013%
0–111%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–016%
1–113%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–18%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–13%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (16%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
87%13%1.5
60%40%2.5
33%67%3.5
15%85%4.5
6%94%

Double chance

Sekhukhune United or draw
75%
Sekhukhune United or Ajax Cape Town
70%
Draw or Ajax Cape Town
55%

Winning margin

Sekhukhune United wins by 2+
20%
Ajax Cape Town wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Sekhukhune United 1+ goals
70%
Sekhukhune United 2+ goals
34%
Sekhukhune United 3+ goals
12%
Ajax Cape Town 1+ goals
56%
Ajax Cape Town 2+ goals
20%
Ajax Cape Town 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

Sekhukhune United (draw refunded)
65%
Ajax Cape Town (draw refunded)
35%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
26%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sekhukhune United at home — creates 1.07, concedes 0.81 · 74 matches

Ajax Cape Town away — creates 0.84, concedes 1.37 · 19 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sekhukhune United attack 1.07 + Ajax Cape Town defence 1.37 → ÷2 → 1.22

Ajax Cape Town attack 0.84 + Sekhukhune United defence 0.81 → ÷2 → 0.82

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Sekhukhune United scores more
45%
level
30%
Ajax Cape Town scores more
25%

Sekhukhune United at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Sekhukhune United will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Sekhukhune United vs Ajax Cape Town

Sekhukhune United beat Ajax Cape Town 1-0 in Premier Soccer League on April 20, 2024.

The match was played at Peter Mokaba Stadium in Pietersburg.