Ajax Cape Town 0–2 Sekhukhune United

Ajax Cape Town

FT

0 – 2

HT: 0 – 0

Sekhukhune United

8/9/2023

Premier Soccer League · Round 2Athlone Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 19+ matches

Ajax Cape Town32%

×Draw31%

Sekhukhune United37%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Ajax Cape TownExpected goals in this matchSekhukhune United

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

0.97

1.06

Ajax Cape Town

0.97

Sekhukhune United

1.06

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 19 home / 75 away

0.95

creates per match

0.91

1.21

allows per match

1.00

creates per match

Ajax Cape Town

0.95

Sekhukhune United

0.91

allows per match

Ajax Cape Town

1.21

Sekhukhune United

1.00

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Ajax Cape Town+0.00on par

Sekhukhune United+0.00on par

Total goals

Under67
Over33

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No59
Yes41

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Ajax Cape Town ↓

Sekhukhune United →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–013%

0–114%

0–27%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–013%

1–114%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–17%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–02%

3–12%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–00%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

87%13%1.5

60%40%2.5

33%67%3.5

15%85%4.5

6%94%

Double chance

Ajax Cape Town or draw

63%

Ajax Cape Town or Sekhukhune United

69%

Draw or Sekhukhune United

68%

Winning margin

Ajax Cape Town wins by 2+

12%

Sekhukhune United wins by 2+

15%

Team goals

Ajax Cape Town 1+ goals

62%

Ajax Cape Town 2+ goals

25%

Ajax Cape Town 3+ goals

7%

Sekhukhune United 1+ goals

65%

Sekhukhune United 2+ goals

29%

Sekhukhune United 3+ goals

9%

Draw no bet

Ajax Cape Town (draw refunded)

47%

Sekhukhune United (draw refunded)

53%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

27%

Both score & under 3

14%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Ajax Cape Town at home — creates 0.95, concedes 1.21 · 19 matches

Sekhukhune United away — creates 0.91, concedes 1.00 · 75 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Ajax Cape Town attack 0.95 + Sekhukhune United defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 0.97

Sekhukhune United attack 0.91 + Ajax Cape Town defence 1.21 → ÷2 → 1.06

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 37%?"

Ajax Cape Town scores more

32%

level

31%

Sekhukhune United scores more

37%

Sekhukhune United at 37% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 37% does not mean "Sekhukhune United will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff