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Seekirchen vs Salzburger AK — Landesliga - Salzburg 2019

Seekirchen
Seekirchen
FT
5 – 3
HT: 1 – 2
Salzburger AK
Salzburger AK
6/6/2025Landesliga - SalzburgLandesliga - Salzburg · Salzburg - 30Sportzentrum Seekirchen

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 30+ matches

Seekirchen73%
×Draw15%
Salzburger AK12%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Seekirchen
2.92
Salzburger AK
1.12

Seekirchen creates 161% more chances

Season form · 30 home / 45 away

creates per match

Seekirchen
3.83
Salzburger AK
1.44

allows per match

Seekirchen
0.80
Salzburger AK
2.02

finishing

Seekirchen+0.00on par
Salzburger AK+0.00on par

Total goals

76%Over
  • Over76
  • Under24

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

64%Yes
  • Yes64
  • No36

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Seekirchen ↓

Salzburger AK →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–12%
0–21%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–05%
1–16%
1–23%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–08%
3–18%
3–25%
3–32%
3–40%
4
4–05%
4–16%
4–23%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 85% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
91%9%2.5
76%24%3.5
56%44%4.5
36%64%

Double chance

Seekirchen or draw
88%
Seekirchen or Salzburger AK
85%
Draw or Salzburger AK
27%

Winning margin

Seekirchen wins by 2+
53%
Salzburger AK wins by 2+
4%

Team goals

Seekirchen 1+ goals
94%
Seekirchen 2+ goals
78%
Seekirchen 3+ goals
55%
Salzburger AK 1+ goals
67%
Salzburger AK 2+ goals
31%
Salzburger AK 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Seekirchen (draw refunded)
86%
Salzburger AK (draw refunded)
14%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
58%
Both score & under 3
6%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Seekirchen at home — creates 3.83, concedes 0.80 · 30 matches

Salzburger AK away — creates 1.44, concedes 2.02 · 45 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Seekirchen attack 3.83 + Salzburger AK defence 2.02 → ÷2 → 2.92

Salzburger AK attack 1.44 + Seekirchen defence 0.80 → ÷2 → 1.12

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 73%?"

Seekirchen scores more
73%
level
15%
Salzburger AK scores more
12%

Seekirchen at 73% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 73% does not mean "Seekirchen will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Seekirchen vs Salzburger AK

Seekirchen beat Salzburger AK 5-3 in Landesliga - Salzburg on June 6, 2025.

The match was played at Sportzentrum Seekirchen in Seekirchen am Wallersee.