Salzburger AK 1–3 Seekirchen: Result & Stats

Salzburger AK

FT

1 – 3

Seekirchen

3/22/2024

Landesliga - Salzburg · Salzburg - 1728 BLACK ARENA-Nonntal

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 30+ matches

Salzburger AK20%

×Draw19%

Seekirchen61%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Salzburger AKExpected goals in this matchSeekirchen

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.27

2.35

Salzburger AK

1.27

Seekirchen

2.35

Seekirchen creates 85% more chances

Season form · 45 home / 30 away

1.67

creates per match

2.97

1.73

allows per match

0.87

creates per match

Salzburger AK

1.67

Seekirchen

2.97

allows per match

Salzburger AK

1.73

Seekirchen

0.87

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Salzburger AK+0.00on par

Seekirchen+0.00on par

Total goals

Over70
Under30

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes65
No35

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Salzburger AK ↓

Seekirchen →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–16%

0–27%

0–36%

0–43%

1

1–03%

1–18%

1–29%

1–37%

1–44%

2

2–02%

2–15%

2–26%

2–35%

2–43%

3

3–01%

3–12%

3–23%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–00%

4–11%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–2 (9%) · grid covers 91% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

87%13%2.5

70%30%3.5

48%52%4.5

29%71%

Double chance

Salzburger AK or draw

39%

Salzburger AK or Seekirchen

81%

Draw or Seekirchen

80%

Winning margin

Salzburger AK wins by 2+

8%

Seekirchen wins by 2+

39%

Team goals

Salzburger AK 1+ goals

72%

Salzburger AK 2+ goals

36%

Salzburger AK 3+ goals

14%

Seekirchen 1+ goals

90%

Seekirchen 2+ goals

68%

Seekirchen 3+ goals

41%

Draw no bet

Salzburger AK (draw refunded)

24%

Seekirchen (draw refunded)

76%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

57%

Both score & under 3

8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Salzburger AK at home — creates 1.67, concedes 1.73 · 45 matches

Seekirchen away — creates 2.97, concedes 0.87 · 30 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Salzburger AK attack 1.67 + Seekirchen defence 0.87 → ÷2 → 1.27

Seekirchen attack 2.97 + Salzburger AK defence 1.73 → ÷2 → 2.35

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 61%?"

Salzburger AK scores more

20%

level

19%

Seekirchen scores more

61%

Seekirchen at 61% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 61% does not mean "Seekirchen will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff