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Seekirchen vs Dornbirn — Regionalliga - West 2018

Seekirchen
Seekirchen
FT
1 – 1
Dornbirn
Dornbirn
5/25/2019Regionalliga - WestRegionalliga - West · Round 28Sportzentrum Seekirchen (Seekirchen am Wallersee)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 33+ matches

Seekirchen47%
×Draw22%
Dornbirn31%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Seekirchen
1.92
Dornbirn
1.52

Seekirchen creates 26% more chances

Season form · 33 home / 48 away

creates per match

Seekirchen
2.58
Dornbirn
1.63

allows per match

Seekirchen
1.42
Dornbirn
1.25

finishing

Seekirchen+0.00on par
Dornbirn+0.00on par

Total goals

67%Over
  • Over67
  • Under33

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

67%Yes
  • Yes67
  • No33

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Seekirchen ↓

Dornbirn →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–15%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–06%
1–19%
1–27%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–27%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–16%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
86%14%2.5
67%33%3.5
45%55%4.5
26%74%

Double chance

Seekirchen or draw
69%
Seekirchen or Dornbirn
78%
Draw or Dornbirn
53%

Winning margin

Seekirchen wins by 2+
26%
Dornbirn wins by 2+
14%

Team goals

Seekirchen 1+ goals
85%
Seekirchen 2+ goals
57%
Seekirchen 3+ goals
30%
Dornbirn 1+ goals
78%
Dornbirn 2+ goals
45%
Dornbirn 3+ goals
20%

Draw no bet

Seekirchen (draw refunded)
60%
Dornbirn (draw refunded)
40%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
57%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Seekirchen at home — creates 2.58, concedes 1.42 · 33 matches

Dornbirn away — creates 1.63, concedes 1.25 · 48 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Seekirchen attack 2.58 + Dornbirn defence 1.25 → ÷2 → 1.92

Dornbirn attack 1.63 + Seekirchen defence 1.42 → ÷2 → 1.52

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Seekirchen scores more
47%
level
22%
Dornbirn scores more
31%

Seekirchen at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Seekirchen will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Regionalliga - West: Seekirchen 1–1 Dornbirn

Seekirchen and Dornbirn drew 1-1 in Regionalliga - West on May 25, 2019.

The match was played at Sportzentrum Seekirchen (Seekirchen am Wallersee).