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Dornbirn vs Seekirchen — Regionalliga - West 2018

Dornbirn
Dornbirn
FT
3 – 0
HT: 2 – 0
Seekirchen
Seekirchen
T. Herbaly 63', 31', 16' (pen)
10/25/2025Regionalliga - WestRegionalliga - West · West - 14Stadion Birkenwiese

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 31+ matches

Dornbirn50%
×Draw21%
Seekirchen29%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Dornbirn
2.10
Seekirchen
1.55

Dornbirn creates 35% more chances

Season form · 49 home / 31 away

creates per match

Dornbirn
2.47
Seekirchen
1.90

allows per match

Dornbirn
1.20
Seekirchen
1.74

finishing

Dornbirn+0.00on par
Seekirchen+0.00on par

Total goals

70%Over
  • Over70
  • Under30

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

69%Yes
  • Yes69
  • No31

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Dornbirn ↓

Seekirchen →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–14%
0–23%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–05%
1–19%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–27%
2–34%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–16%
3–25%
3–33%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–23%
4–31%
4–41%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
88%12%2.5
70%30%3.5
49%51%4.5
30%70%

Double chance

Dornbirn or draw
71%
Dornbirn or Seekirchen
79%
Draw or Seekirchen
50%

Winning margin

Dornbirn wins by 2+
29%
Seekirchen wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

Dornbirn 1+ goals
88%
Dornbirn 2+ goals
62%
Dornbirn 3+ goals
35%
Seekirchen 1+ goals
79%
Seekirchen 2+ goals
46%
Seekirchen 3+ goals
20%

Draw no bet

Dornbirn (draw refunded)
64%
Seekirchen (draw refunded)
36%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
61%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Dornbirn at home — creates 2.47, concedes 1.20 · 49 matches

Seekirchen away — creates 1.90, concedes 1.74 · 31 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Dornbirn attack 2.47 + Seekirchen defence 1.74 → ÷2 → 2.10

Seekirchen attack 1.90 + Dornbirn defence 1.20 → ÷2 → 1.55

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Dornbirn scores more
50%
level
21%
Seekirchen scores more
29%

Dornbirn at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Dornbirn will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

16'
T. HerbalyPenalty
31'
T. Herbaly
63'
T. Herbaly

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Regionalliga - West: Dornbirn 3–0 Seekirchen

Dornbirn beat Seekirchen 3-0 in Regionalliga - West on October 25, 2025.

Goals: T. Herbaly (16' pen, 31', 63').

The match was played at Stadion Birkenwiese in Dornbirn.