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Sebeta Kenema vs Kedus Giorgis — Premier League 2019

Sebeta Kenema
Sebeta Kenema
FT
2 – 4
Kedus Giorgis
Kedus Giorgis
12/28/2020Premier LeaguePremier League · Round 4Addis Ababa Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 36+ matches

Sebeta Kenema25%
×Draw29%
Kedus Giorgis47%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Sebeta Kenema
0.85
Kedus Giorgis
1.29

Kedus Giorgis creates 52% more chances

Season form · 36 home / 101 away

creates per match

Sebeta Kenema
0.94
Kedus Giorgis
1.29

allows per match

Sebeta Kenema
1.28
Kedus Giorgis
0.76

finishing

Sebeta Kenema+0.00on par
Kedus Giorgis+0.00on par

Total goals

64%Under
  • Under64
  • Over36

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

59%No
  • No59
  • Yes41

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sebeta Kenema ↓

Kedus Giorgis →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–012%
0–115%
0–210%
0–34%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–113%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–04%
2–15%
2–24%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–01%
3–12%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (15%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
88%12%1.5
63%37%2.5
36%64%3.5
17%83%4.5
7%93%

Double chance

Sebeta Kenema or draw
53%
Sebeta Kenema or Kedus Giorgis
71%
Draw or Kedus Giorgis
75%

Winning margin

Sebeta Kenema wins by 2+
8%
Kedus Giorgis wins by 2+
22%

Team goals

Sebeta Kenema 1+ goals
57%
Sebeta Kenema 2+ goals
21%
Sebeta Kenema 3+ goals
5%
Kedus Giorgis 1+ goals
72%
Kedus Giorgis 2+ goals
37%
Kedus Giorgis 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

Sebeta Kenema (draw refunded)
34%
Kedus Giorgis (draw refunded)
66%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
29%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sebeta Kenema at home — creates 0.94, concedes 1.28 · 36 matches

Kedus Giorgis away — creates 1.29, concedes 0.76 · 101 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sebeta Kenema attack 0.94 + Kedus Giorgis defence 0.76 → ÷2 → 0.85

Kedus Giorgis attack 1.29 + Sebeta Kenema defence 1.28 → ÷2 → 1.29

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Sebeta Kenema scores more
25%
level
29%
Kedus Giorgis scores more
47%

Kedus Giorgis at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Kedus Giorgis will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Premier League: Sebeta Kenema 2–4 Kedus Giorgis

Kedus Giorgis beat Sebeta Kenema 4-2 in Premier League on December 28, 2020.

The match was played at Addis Ababa Stadium in Addis Abeba.