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Kedus Giorgis vs Sebeta Kenema — Premier League 2019

Kedus Giorgis
Kedus Giorgis
FT
0 – 0
Sebeta Kenema
Sebeta Kenema
4/7/2021Premier LeaguePremier League · Round 17Dire Dawa Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 35+ matches

Kedus Giorgis46%
×Draw28%
Sebeta Kenema25%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Kedus Giorgis
1.32
Sebeta Kenema
0.90

Kedus Giorgis creates 47% more chances

Season form · 102 home / 35 away

creates per match

Kedus Giorgis
1.33
Sebeta Kenema
1.00

allows per match

Kedus Giorgis
0.79
Sebeta Kenema
1.31

finishing

Kedus Giorgis+0.00on par
Sebeta Kenema+0.00on par

Total goals

62%Under
  • Under62
  • Over38

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

57%No
  • No57
  • Yes43

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Kedus Giorgis ↓

Sebeta Kenema →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–011%
0–110%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–014%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–09%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
89%11%1.5
65%35%2.5
38%62%3.5
18%82%4.5
7%93%

Double chance

Kedus Giorgis or draw
75%
Kedus Giorgis or Sebeta Kenema
72%
Draw or Sebeta Kenema
54%

Winning margin

Kedus Giorgis wins by 2+
22%
Sebeta Kenema wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Kedus Giorgis 1+ goals
73%
Kedus Giorgis 2+ goals
38%
Kedus Giorgis 3+ goals
15%
Sebeta Kenema 1+ goals
59%
Sebeta Kenema 2+ goals
23%
Sebeta Kenema 3+ goals
6%

Draw no bet

Kedus Giorgis (draw refunded)
65%
Sebeta Kenema (draw refunded)
35%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
31%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Kedus Giorgis at home — creates 1.33, concedes 0.79 · 102 matches

Sebeta Kenema away — creates 1.00, concedes 1.31 · 35 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Kedus Giorgis attack 1.33 + Sebeta Kenema defence 1.31 → ÷2 → 1.32

Sebeta Kenema attack 1.00 + Kedus Giorgis defence 0.79 → ÷2 → 0.90

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Kedus Giorgis scores more
46%
level
28%
Sebeta Kenema scores more
25%

Kedus Giorgis at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Kedus Giorgis will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Kedus Giorgis vs Sebeta Kenema

Kedus Giorgis and Sebeta Kenema drew 0-0 in Premier League on April 7, 2021.

The match was played at Dire Dawa Stadium in Dire Dawa.