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Sebeta Kenema vs Dire Dawa Kenema — Premier League 2019

Sebeta Kenema
Sebeta Kenema
FT
0 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Dire Dawa Kenema
Dire Dawa Kenema
12/3/2021Premier LeaguePremier League · Round 6Hawassa Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 36+ matches

Sebeta Kenema34%
×Draw29%
Dire Dawa Kenema37%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Sebeta Kenema
1.09
Dire Dawa Kenema
1.14

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 36 home / 100 away

creates per match

Sebeta Kenema
0.94
Dire Dawa Kenema
0.99

allows per match

Sebeta Kenema
1.28
Dire Dawa Kenema
1.24

finishing

Sebeta Kenema+0.00on par
Dire Dawa Kenema+0.00on par

Total goals

61%Under
  • Under61
  • Over39

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

55%No
  • No55
  • Yes45

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sebeta Kenema ↓

Dire Dawa Kenema →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–011%
0–112%
0–27%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–17%
2–24%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
89%11%1.5
65%35%2.5
39%61%3.5
19%81%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

Sebeta Kenema or draw
63%
Sebeta Kenema or Dire Dawa Kenema
71%
Draw or Dire Dawa Kenema
66%

Winning margin

Sebeta Kenema wins by 2+
14%
Dire Dawa Kenema wins by 2+
15%

Team goals

Sebeta Kenema 1+ goals
66%
Sebeta Kenema 2+ goals
30%
Sebeta Kenema 3+ goals
10%
Dire Dawa Kenema 1+ goals
68%
Dire Dawa Kenema 2+ goals
32%
Dire Dawa Kenema 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Sebeta Kenema (draw refunded)
48%
Dire Dawa Kenema (draw refunded)
52%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
32%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sebeta Kenema at home — creates 0.94, concedes 1.28 · 36 matches

Dire Dawa Kenema away — creates 0.99, concedes 1.24 · 100 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sebeta Kenema attack 0.94 + Dire Dawa Kenema defence 1.24 → ÷2 → 1.09

Dire Dawa Kenema attack 0.99 + Sebeta Kenema defence 1.28 → ÷2 → 1.14

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 37%?"

Sebeta Kenema scores more
34%
level
29%
Dire Dawa Kenema scores more
37%

Dire Dawa Kenema at 37% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 37% does not mean "Dire Dawa Kenema will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Premier League: Sebeta Kenema 0–0 Dire Dawa Kenema

Sebeta Kenema and Dire Dawa Kenema drew 0-0 in Premier League on December 3, 2021.

The match was played at Hawassa Stadium in Hawassa.