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Dire Dawa Kenema vs Sebeta Kenema — Premier League 2019

Dire Dawa Kenema
Dire Dawa Kenema
FT
2 – 2
Sebeta Kenema
Sebeta Kenema
2/28/2021Premier LeaguePremier League · Round 14Bahir Dar Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 35+ matches

Dire Dawa Kenema35%
×Draw28%
Sebeta Kenema37%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Dire Dawa Kenema
1.14
Sebeta Kenema
1.17

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 102 home / 35 away

creates per match

Dire Dawa Kenema
0.97
Sebeta Kenema
1.00

allows per match

Dire Dawa Kenema
1.34
Sebeta Kenema
1.31

finishing

Dire Dawa Kenema+0.00on par
Sebeta Kenema+0.00on par

Total goals

59%Under
  • Under59
  • Over41

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

53%No
  • No53
  • Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Dire Dawa Kenema ↓

Sebeta Kenema →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–112%
0–27%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–18%
2–24%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
67%33%2.5
41%59%3.5
20%80%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

Dire Dawa Kenema or draw
63%
Dire Dawa Kenema or Sebeta Kenema
72%
Draw or Sebeta Kenema
65%

Winning margin

Dire Dawa Kenema wins by 2+
14%
Sebeta Kenema wins by 2+
15%

Team goals

Dire Dawa Kenema 1+ goals
68%
Dire Dawa Kenema 2+ goals
32%
Dire Dawa Kenema 3+ goals
11%
Sebeta Kenema 1+ goals
69%
Sebeta Kenema 2+ goals
33%
Sebeta Kenema 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Dire Dawa Kenema (draw refunded)
49%
Sebeta Kenema (draw refunded)
51%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
34%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Dire Dawa Kenema at home — creates 0.97, concedes 1.34 · 102 matches

Sebeta Kenema away — creates 1.00, concedes 1.31 · 35 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Dire Dawa Kenema attack 0.97 + Sebeta Kenema defence 1.31 → ÷2 → 1.14

Sebeta Kenema attack 1.00 + Dire Dawa Kenema defence 1.34 → ÷2 → 1.17

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 37%?"

Dire Dawa Kenema scores more
35%
level
28%
Sebeta Kenema scores more
37%

Sebeta Kenema at 37% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 37% does not mean "Sebeta Kenema will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Dire Dawa Kenema vs Sebeta Kenema

Dire Dawa Kenema and Sebeta Kenema drew 2-2 in Premier League on February 28, 2021.

The match was played at Bahir Dar Stadium in Bahir Dar.