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Seattle Sounders vs Colorado Rapids — Major League Soccer 2026

Seattle Sounders
Seattle Sounders
FT
1 – 1
HT: 1 – 0
Colorado Rapids
Colorado Rapids
3/16/2024Major League SoccerMajor League Soccer · Round 6Lumen Field

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 17+ matches

Seattle Sounders51%
×Draw22%
Colorado Rapids27%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Seattle Sounders
1.95
Colorado Rapids
1.35

Seattle Sounders creates 44% more chances

Season form · 17 home / 20 away

creates per match

Seattle Sounders
2.11
Colorado Rapids
1.35

allows per match

Seattle Sounders
1.34
Colorado Rapids
1.79

finishing

Seattle Sounders-0.11scores less
Colorado Rapids-0.15scores less

Total goals

64%Over
  • Over64
  • Under36

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

63%Yes
  • Yes63
  • No37

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Seattle Sounders ↓

Colorado Rapids →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–15%
0–23%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–07%
1–110%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–110%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–16%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
84%16%2.5
64%36%3.5
42%58%4.5
23%77%

Double chance

Seattle Sounders or draw
73%
Seattle Sounders or Colorado Rapids
78%
Draw or Colorado Rapids
49%

Winning margin

Seattle Sounders wins by 2+
29%
Colorado Rapids wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Seattle Sounders 1+ goals
86%
Seattle Sounders 2+ goals
58%
Seattle Sounders 3+ goals
31%
Colorado Rapids 1+ goals
74%
Colorado Rapids 2+ goals
39%
Colorado Rapids 3+ goals
15%

Draw no bet

Seattle Sounders (draw refunded)
66%
Colorado Rapids (draw refunded)
34%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
54%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Seattle Sounders at home — creates 2.11, concedes 1.34 · 17 matches

Colorado Rapids away — creates 1.35, concedes 1.79 · 20 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Seattle Sounders attack 2.11 + Colorado Rapids defence 1.79 → ÷2 → 1.95

Colorado Rapids attack 1.35 + Seattle Sounders defence 1.34 → ÷2 → 1.35

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

Seattle Sounders scores more
51%
level
22%
Colorado Rapids scores more
27%

Seattle Sounders at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "Seattle Sounders will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Major League Soccer: Seattle Sounders 1–1 Colorado Rapids

Seattle Sounders and Colorado Rapids drew 1-1 in Major League Soccer on March 16, 2024.

The match was played at Lumen Field in Seattle, Washington.