Colorado Rapids 0–1 Seattle Sounders

Colorado Rapids

FT

0 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

Seattle Sounders

10/6/2024

Major League Soccer · Round 48Dick's Sporting Goods Park

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 14+ matches

Colorado Rapids41%

×Draw23%

Seattle Sounders36%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Colorado RapidsExpected goals in this matchSeattle Sounders

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.69

1.56

Colorado Rapids

1.69

Seattle Sounders

1.56

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 14 home / 16 away

2.13

creates per match

1.49

1.62

allows per match

1.26

creates per match

Colorado Rapids

2.13

Seattle Sounders

1.49

allows per match

Colorado Rapids

1.62

Seattle Sounders

1.26

-0.42scores less than expected

finishing

-0.43scores less than expected

finishing

Colorado Rapids-0.42scores less

Seattle Sounders-0.43scores less

Total goals

Over63
Under37

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes64
No36

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Colorado Rapids ↓

Seattle Sounders →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–16%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–07%

1–110%

1–28%

1–34%

1–42%

2

2–06%

2–19%

2–27%

2–34%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–15%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

83%17%2.5

63%37%3.5

41%59%4.5

23%77%

Double chance

Colorado Rapids or draw

64%

Colorado Rapids or Seattle Sounders

77%

Draw or Seattle Sounders

59%

Winning margin

Colorado Rapids wins by 2+

21%

Seattle Sounders wins by 2+

17%

Team goals

Colorado Rapids 1+ goals

82%

Colorado Rapids 2+ goals

50%

Colorado Rapids 3+ goals

24%

Seattle Sounders 1+ goals

79%

Seattle Sounders 2+ goals

46%

Seattle Sounders 3+ goals

21%

Draw no bet

Colorado Rapids (draw refunded)

54%

Seattle Sounders (draw refunded)

46%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

54%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Colorado Rapids at home — creates 2.13, concedes 1.62 · 14 matches

Seattle Sounders away — creates 1.49, concedes 1.26 · 16 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Colorado Rapids attack 2.13 + Seattle Sounders defence 1.26 → ÷2 → 1.69

Seattle Sounders attack 1.49 + Colorado Rapids defence 1.62 → ÷2 → 1.56

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Colorado Rapids scores more

41%

level

23%

Seattle Sounders scores more

36%

Colorado Rapids at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Colorado Rapids will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff