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Seattle Sounders vs CD Motagua — CONCACAF Champions League 2018

Seattle Sounders
Seattle Soundersadvanced
FT
5 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
CD Motagua
CD Motagua
2/25/2022CONCACAF Champions LeagueCONCACAF Champions League · Round of 16Lumen Field

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 6+ matches

Seattle Sounders84%
×Draw12%
CD Motagua4%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Seattle Sounders
2.69
CD Motagua
0.45

Seattle Sounders creates 498% more chances

Season form · 10 home / 6 away

creates per match

Seattle Sounders
2.70
CD Motagua
0.50

allows per match

Seattle Sounders
0.40
CD Motagua
2.67

finishing

Seattle Sounders+0.00on par
CD Motagua+0.00on par

Total goals

60%Over
  • Over60
  • Under40

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

66%No
  • No66
  • Yes34

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Seattle Sounders ↓

CD Motagua →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–12%
0–20%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–15%
1–21%
1–30%
1–40%
2
2–016%
2–17%
2–22%
2–30%
2–40%
3
3–014%
3–16%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–010%
4–14%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (16%) · grid covers 88% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
82%18%2.5
60%40%3.5
37%63%4.5
19%81%

Double chance

Seattle Sounders or draw
96%
Seattle Sounders or CD Motagua
88%
Draw or CD Motagua
16%

Winning margin

Seattle Sounders wins by 2+
63%
CD Motagua wins by 2+
1%

Team goals

Seattle Sounders 1+ goals
93%
Seattle Sounders 2+ goals
74%
Seattle Sounders 3+ goals
49%
CD Motagua 1+ goals
36%
CD Motagua 2+ goals
8%
CD Motagua 3+ goals
1%

Draw no bet

Seattle Sounders (draw refunded)
95%
CD Motagua (draw refunded)
5%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
28%
Both score & under 3
5%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Seattle Sounders at home — creates 2.70, concedes 0.40 · 10 matches

CD Motagua away — creates 0.50, concedes 2.67 · 6 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Seattle Sounders attack 2.70 + CD Motagua defence 2.67 → ÷2 → 2.69

CD Motagua attack 0.50 + Seattle Sounders defence 0.40 → ÷2 → 0.45

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 84%?"

Seattle Sounders scores more
84%
level
12%
CD Motagua scores more
4%

Seattle Sounders at 84% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 84% does not mean "Seattle Sounders will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

CONCACAF Champions League: Seattle Sounders 5–0 CD Motagua

Seattle Sounders beat CD Motagua 5-0 in CONCACAF Champions League on February 25, 2022.

The match was played at Lumen Field in Seattle, Washington.