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CD Motagua vs Seattle Sounders — CONCACAF Champions League 2018

CD Motagua
CD Motagua
FT
0 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Seattle Sounders
Seattle Sounders
2/18/2022CONCACAF Champions LeagueCONCACAF Champions League · Round of 16Estadio Olímpico Metropolitano

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 6+ matches

CD Motagua30%
×Draw29%
Seattle Sounders42%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

CD Motagua
0.98
Seattle Sounders
1.22

Seattle Sounders creates 24% more chances

Season form · 6 home / 11 away

creates per match

CD Motagua
0.33
Seattle Sounders
1.27

allows per match

CD Motagua
1.17
Seattle Sounders
1.64

finishing

CD Motagua+0.00on par
Seattle Sounders+0.00on par

Total goals

62%Under
  • Under62
  • Over38

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

56%No
  • No56
  • Yes44

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

CD Motagua ↓

Seattle Sounders →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–011%
0–114%
0–28%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–05%
2–16%
2–24%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–02%
3–12%
3–21%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
89%11%1.5
65%35%2.5
38%62%3.5
18%82%4.5
7%93%

Double chance

CD Motagua or draw
58%
CD Motagua or Seattle Sounders
71%
Draw or Seattle Sounders
70%

Winning margin

CD Motagua wins by 2+
11%
Seattle Sounders wins by 2+
18%

Team goals

CD Motagua 1+ goals
62%
CD Motagua 2+ goals
26%
CD Motagua 3+ goals
8%
Seattle Sounders 1+ goals
70%
Seattle Sounders 2+ goals
34%
Seattle Sounders 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

CD Motagua (draw refunded)
42%
Seattle Sounders (draw refunded)
58%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
31%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

CD Motagua at home — creates 0.33, concedes 1.17 · 6 matches

Seattle Sounders away — creates 1.27, concedes 1.64 · 11 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

CD Motagua attack 0.33 + Seattle Sounders defence 1.64 → ÷2 → 0.98

Seattle Sounders attack 1.27 + CD Motagua defence 1.17 → ÷2 → 1.22

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

CD Motagua scores more
30%
level
29%
Seattle Sounders scores more
42%

Seattle Sounders at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Seattle Sounders will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: CD Motagua vs Seattle Sounders

CD Motagua and Seattle Sounders drew 0-0 in CONCACAF Champions League on February 18, 2022.

The match was played at Estadio Olímpico Metropolitano in San Pedro Sula.