Seattle Sounders II 1–1 Saint Louis: Result & Stats

Seattle Sounders II

FT

1 – 1

HT: 1 – 1

Saint Louis

A. Gilroy 37'

K. Greig 27'

8/30/2018

USL Championship · Round 44Cheney Stadium (Tacoma, Washington)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Seattle Sounders II43%

×Draw25%

Saint Louis32%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Seattle Sounders IIExpected goals in this matchSaint Louis

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.52

1.29

Seattle Sounders II

1.52

Saint Louis

1.29

Seattle Sounders II creates 18% more chances

Season form · 17 home / 45 away

1.53

creates per match

0.93

1.65

allows per match

1.51

creates per match

Seattle Sounders II

1.53

Saint Louis

0.93

allows per match

Seattle Sounders II

1.65

Saint Louis

1.51

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Seattle Sounders II+0.00on par

Saint Louis+0.00on par

Total goals

Over53
Under47

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes57
No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Seattle Sounders II ↓

Saint Louis →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–18%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–09%

1–112%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

77%23%2.5

53%47%3.5

31%69%4.5

15%85%

Double chance

Seattle Sounders II or draw

68%

Seattle Sounders II or Saint Louis

75%

Draw or Saint Louis

57%

Winning margin

Seattle Sounders II wins by 2+

21%

Saint Louis wins by 2+

14%

Team goals

Seattle Sounders II 1+ goals

78%

Seattle Sounders II 2+ goals

45%

Seattle Sounders II 3+ goals

20%

Saint Louis 1+ goals

72%

Saint Louis 2+ goals

37%

Saint Louis 3+ goals

14%

Draw no bet

Seattle Sounders II (draw refunded)

57%

Saint Louis (draw refunded)

43%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

45%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Seattle Sounders II at home — creates 1.53, concedes 1.65 · 17 matches

Saint Louis away — creates 0.93, concedes 1.51 · 45 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Seattle Sounders II attack 1.53 + Saint Louis defence 1.51 → ÷2 → 1.52

Saint Louis attack 0.93 + Seattle Sounders II defence 1.65 → ÷2 → 1.29

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Seattle Sounders II scores more

43%

level

25%

Saint Louis scores more

32%

Seattle Sounders II at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Seattle Sounders II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

27'

37'

46'

63'

63'

72'

A. Gonzalez← A. Gilroy

72'

A. Martz← A. Jepson

82'

M. Cox← K. Greig

Seattle

Saint

24

14

15

3

17

20

13

8

12

▼

Jepson

11

A

▼

Hertzog

22

⚽

▼

Greig

35

Meredith

31

A

15

36

55

41

27

21

▼

Delem

23

▼

Wingo

98

⚽

▼

Gilroy

46

Kingston

Manager: J. Hutchinson

46'▲A. Roldan←▼H. Wingo

63'▲S. Hopeau←▼J. Delem

72'▲A. Gonzalez←▼A. Gilroy

Seattle Sounders II substitutes

16Roldan37Hopeau38Gonzalez87Chavez68Castro34Usman

Manager: A. Pulis

63'▲A. Dikwa←▼C. Hertzog

72'▲A. Martz←▼A. Jepson

82'▲M. Cox←▼K. Greig

Saint Louis substitutes

10Dikwa77Martz92Cox1Gomez4Fink5Culbertson7Calistri

USL Championship: Seattle Sounders II 1–1 Saint Louis

Seattle Sounders II and Saint Louis drew 1-1 in USL Championship on August 30, 2018.

Goals: K. Greig (27'), A. Gilroy (37').

The match was played at Cheney Stadium (Tacoma, Washington).

Seattle Sounders II vs Saint Louis — USL Championship 2018

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

USL Championship: Seattle Sounders II 1–1 Saint Louis