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Saint Louis vs Seattle Sounders II — USL Championship 2018

Saint Louis
Saint Louis
FT
1 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
Seattle Sounders II
Seattle Sounders II
7/7/2016USL ChampionshipUSL Championship · Round 24World Wide Technology Soccer Park (St. Louis, Missouri)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 18+ matches

Saint Louis63%
×Draw21%
Seattle Sounders II16%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Saint Louis
2.00
Seattle Sounders II
0.91

Saint Louis creates 120% more chances

Season form · 47 home / 18 away

creates per match

Saint Louis
1.55
Seattle Sounders II
0.83

allows per match

Saint Louis
0.98
Seattle Sounders II
2.44

finishing

Saint Louis+0.00on par
Seattle Sounders II+0.00on par

Total goals

55%Over
  • Over55
  • Under45

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

52%Yes
  • Yes52
  • No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Saint Louis ↓

Seattle Sounders II →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–15%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–011%
1–110%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–110%
2–25%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–07%
3–17%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–04%
4–13%
4–22%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (11%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
79%21%2.5
55%45%3.5
33%67%4.5
17%83%

Double chance

Saint Louis or draw
84%
Saint Louis or Seattle Sounders II
79%
Draw or Seattle Sounders II
37%

Winning margin

Saint Louis wins by 2+
38%
Seattle Sounders II wins by 2+
5%

Team goals

Saint Louis 1+ goals
86%
Saint Louis 2+ goals
59%
Saint Louis 3+ goals
32%
Seattle Sounders II 1+ goals
60%
Seattle Sounders II 2+ goals
23%
Seattle Sounders II 3+ goals
6%

Draw no bet

Saint Louis (draw refunded)
79%
Seattle Sounders II (draw refunded)
21%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
42%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Saint Louis at home — creates 1.55, concedes 0.98 · 47 matches

Seattle Sounders II away — creates 0.83, concedes 2.44 · 18 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Saint Louis attack 1.55 + Seattle Sounders II defence 2.44 → ÷2 → 2.00

Seattle Sounders II attack 0.83 + Saint Louis defence 0.98 → ÷2 → 0.91

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 63%?"

Saint Louis scores more
63%
level
21%
Seattle Sounders II scores more
16%

Saint Louis at 63% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 63% does not mean "Saint Louis will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

USL Championship: Saint Louis 1–1 Seattle Sounders II

Saint Louis and Seattle Sounders II drew 1-1 in USL Championship on July 7, 2016.

The match was played at World Wide Technology Soccer Park (St. Louis, Missouri).