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Seattle Reign FC W vs San Diego Wave W — NWSL Women 2025

Seattle Reign FC W
Seattle Reign FC W
Preview
01:00
San Diego Wave W
San Diego Wave W
9/7/2026NWSL WomenNWSL Women · Group StageLumen Field
Big match
38%
San Diego Wave W
model favours
34%28%38%

Seattle Reign FC W score first in only 17% of matches

brightest fact of this match

1–1
likely score
60%
under 2.5 goals
46%
both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 25+ matches

Seattle Reign FC W34%
×Draw28%
San Diego Wave W38%
✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
48.6%
Always home
43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Seattle Reign FC W
1.10
San Diego Wave W
1.19

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 30 home / 25 away

creates per match

Seattle Reign FC W
1.00
San Diego Wave W
1.48

allows per match

Seattle Reign FC W
0.90
San Diego Wave W
1.20

finishing

Seattle Reign FC W+0.00on par
San Diego Wave W+0.00on par

Total goals

60%Under
  • Under60
  • Over40

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

54%No
  • No54
  • Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Seattle Reign FC W ↓

San Diego Wave W →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–112%
0–27%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–17%
2–24%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
67%33%2.5
40%60%3.5
20%80%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

Seattle Reign FC W or draw
62%
Seattle Reign FC W or San Diego Wave W
72%
Draw or San Diego Wave W
66%

Winning margin

Seattle Reign FC W wins by 2+
13%
San Diego Wave W wins by 2+
16%

Team goals

Seattle Reign FC W 1+ goals
67%
Seattle Reign FC W 2+ goals
30%
Seattle Reign FC W 3+ goals
10%
San Diego Wave W 1+ goals
70%
San Diego Wave W 2+ goals
33%
San Diego Wave W 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

Seattle Reign FC W (draw refunded)
47%
San Diego Wave W (draw refunded)
53%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
33%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Seattle Reign FC W at home — creates 1.00, concedes 0.90 · 30 matches

San Diego Wave W away — creates 1.48, concedes 1.20 · 25 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Seattle Reign FC W attack 1.00 + San Diego Wave W defence 1.20 → ÷2 → 1.10

San Diego Wave W attack 1.48 + Seattle Reign FC W defence 0.90 → ÷2 → 1.19

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Seattle Reign FC W scores more
34%
level
28%
San Diego Wave W scores more
38%

San Diego Wave W at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "San Diego Wave W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Style Matchup

Similar styles
Seattle Reign FC W
Balanced
San Diego Wave W
Balanced
47%PossessionBiggest gap56%
77%Pass accuracy82%
8.9Shots10.0
1.33xG—
Pass acc.ShotsxGBox shareShot acc.Defense
Seattle Reign FC WSan Diego Wave W

Head-to-head

5 previous meetings

3
Seattle Reign FC W
1
Draws
1
San Diego Wave W
Avg goals: 1.6BTTS: 40%
0–02–12–10–11–0

Playing styles from match stats. Historical H2H record. Not a prediction.

Form
W
WLLWL
W
LWWWL

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Seattle Reign FC W face San Diego Wave W (NWSL Women)

NWSL Women returns with Seattle Reign FC W hosting San Diego Wave W. Match starts September 7, 2026. Live commentary, lineups, and stats appear here from kickoff. Submit your prediction below for a chance to earn XP.

Seattle Reign FC W host San Diego Wave W at Lumen Field.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.