Seattle Reign FC W 0–0 San Diego Wave W

Seattle Reign FC W

FT

0 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

San Diego Wave W

8/30/2025

NWSL Women · Round 18Lumen Field

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 25+ matches

Seattle Reign FC W34%

×Draw28%

San Diego Wave W38%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Seattle Reign FC WExpected goals in this matchSan Diego Wave W

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.10

1.19

Seattle Reign FC W

1.10

San Diego Wave W

1.19

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 30 home / 25 away

1.00

creates per match

1.48

0.90

allows per match

1.20

creates per match

Seattle Reign FC W

1.00

San Diego Wave W

1.48

allows per match

Seattle Reign FC W

0.90

San Diego Wave W

1.20

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Seattle Reign FC W+0.00on par

San Diego Wave W+0.00on par

Total goals

Under60
Over40

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No54
Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Seattle Reign FC W ↓

San Diego Wave W →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–010%

0–112%

0–27%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–011%

1–113%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–17%

2–24%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–02%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

90%10%1.5

67%33%2.5

40%60%3.5

20%80%4.5

8%92%

Double chance

Seattle Reign FC W or draw

62%

Seattle Reign FC W or San Diego Wave W

72%

Draw or San Diego Wave W

66%

Winning margin

Seattle Reign FC W wins by 2+

13%

San Diego Wave W wins by 2+

16%

Team goals

Seattle Reign FC W 1+ goals

67%

Seattle Reign FC W 2+ goals

30%

Seattle Reign FC W 3+ goals

10%

San Diego Wave W 1+ goals

70%

San Diego Wave W 2+ goals

33%

San Diego Wave W 3+ goals

12%

Draw no bet

Seattle Reign FC W (draw refunded)

47%

San Diego Wave W (draw refunded)

53%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

33%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Seattle Reign FC W at home — creates 1.00, concedes 0.90 · 30 matches

San Diego Wave W away — creates 1.48, concedes 1.20 · 25 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Seattle Reign FC W attack 1.00 + San Diego Wave W defence 1.20 → ÷2 → 1.10

San Diego Wave W attack 1.48 + Seattle Reign FC W defence 0.90 → ÷2 → 1.19

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Seattle Reign FC W scores more

34%

level

28%

San Diego Wave W scores more

38%

San Diego Wave W at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "San Diego Wave W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

1

K. Sheridan

San Diego Wave W · G

8.0

Match Events

37'

Sally Marie Menti

46'

S. McCaskill← L. Fazer

46'

A. Leon← K. Ascanio

60'

Kristen McNabb

74'

M. Barcenas← M. Robbe

81'

M. G. Dahlien← M. Curry

81'

N. Mondesir← J. Fishlock

89'

M. Fishel← E. Adames

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

SeattleSan

Overview

36%Possession64%

12Total Shots9

2Corners6

6Fouls9

Shots

12Total Shots9

5On Target3

4Off Target5

3Blocked1

6Inside Box6

6Outside Box3

Passing

36%Possession64%

359Total Passes624

295Accurate Passes550

82%Pass Accuracy88%

Goalkeeping

4Saves5

Discipline

6Fouls9

1Yellow Cards1

1Offsides2