Seattle Reign FC W 2–1 San Diego Wave W

Seattle Reign FC W

FT

2 – 1

HT: 1 – 1

San Diego Wave W

V. Latsko 89'

B. Balcer 34'

K. Carusa 11'

5/4/2024

NWSL Women · Round 6Lumen Field

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 26+ matches

Seattle Reign FC W35%

×Draw28%

San Diego Wave W36%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Seattle Reign FC WExpected goals in this matchSan Diego Wave W

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.16

1.18

Seattle Reign FC W

1.16

San Diego Wave W

1.18

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 30 home / 26 away

1.00

creates per match

1.46

0.90

allows per match

1.31

creates per match

Seattle Reign FC W

1.00

San Diego Wave W

1.46

allows per match

Seattle Reign FC W

0.90

San Diego Wave W

1.31

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Seattle Reign FC W+0.00on par

San Diego Wave W+0.00on par

Total goals

Under59
Over41

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No52
Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Seattle Reign FC W ↓

San Diego Wave W →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–010%

0–111%

0–27%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–011%

1–113%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–18%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

90%10%1.5

68%32%2.5

41%59%3.5

21%79%4.5

9%91%

Double chance

Seattle Reign FC W or draw

64%

Seattle Reign FC W or San Diego Wave W

72%

Draw or San Diego Wave W

65%

Winning margin

Seattle Reign FC W wins by 2+

15%

San Diego Wave W wins by 2+

15%

Team goals

Seattle Reign FC W 1+ goals

69%

Seattle Reign FC W 2+ goals

32%

Seattle Reign FC W 3+ goals

11%

San Diego Wave W 1+ goals

69%

San Diego Wave W 2+ goals

33%

San Diego Wave W 3+ goals

12%

Draw no bet

Seattle Reign FC W (draw refunded)

49%

San Diego Wave W (draw refunded)

51%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

34%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Seattle Reign FC W at home — creates 1.00, concedes 0.90 · 30 matches

San Diego Wave W away — creates 1.46, concedes 1.31 · 26 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Seattle Reign FC W attack 1.00 + San Diego Wave W defence 1.31 → ÷2 → 1.16

San Diego Wave W attack 1.46 + Seattle Reign FC W defence 0.90 → ÷2 → 1.18

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 36%?"

Seattle Reign FC W scores more

35%

level

28%

San Diego Wave W scores more

36%

San Diego Wave W at 36% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 36% does not mean "San Diego Wave W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

18

L. Ivory

Seattle Reign FC W · G

7.7

Match Events

8'

Tziarra KingCard upgrade

9'

11'

21'

24'

34'

38'

45+6'

45+5'

46'

52'

63'

M. Sánchez← K. Carusa

65'

Sofia Huerta

67'

Ji So-Yun← O. Athens

67'

O. Van der Jagt← B. Balcer

78'

Phoebe McClernon

80'

A. Ali← M. Doniak

89'

V. Latsko↳ Ji So-Yun

90+1'

Savannah McCaskill

90+15'

Kristen McNabb

90+13'

Kristen McNabbCard upgrade

90+2'

M. Weinert← A. James-Turner

90+2'

S. Holmes← P. McClernon

90+4'

M. Jones← E. van Egmond

90+4'

K. Ascanio← S. McCaskill

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

SeattleSan

Overview

33%Possession67%

8Total Shots12

0Corners7

17Fouls18

Shots

8Total Shots12

3On Target6

4Off Target4

1Blocked2

5Inside Box9

3Outside Box3

Passing

33%Possession67%

286Total Passes560

178Accurate Passes462

62%Pass Accuracy83%

Goalkeeping

5Saves1

Discipline

17Fouls18

4Yellow Cards4

1Red Cards1

1Offsides3

Match Recap: Seattle Reign FC W vs San Diego Wave W

Seattle Reign FC W beat San Diego Wave W 2-1 in NWSL Women on May 4, 2024.

Goals: K. Carusa (11'), B. Balcer (34'), V. Latsko (89').

San Diego Wave W controlled possession (67%) and registered 12 shots to 8.

The match was played at Lumen Field in Seattle, Washington.

Seattle Reign FC W vs San Diego Wave W — NWSL Women 2025

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Player of the match

Match Events

Head to Head

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

Match Recap: Seattle Reign FC W vs San Diego Wave W