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Seattle Reign FC W vs San Diego Wave — NWSL Women - Challenge Cup 2020

Seattle Reign FC W
Seattle Reign FC W
FT
3 – 1
HT: 3 – 1
San Diego Wave
San Diego Wave
4/15/2022NWSL Women - Challenge CupNWSL Women - Challenge Cup · Group Stage - 3Lumen Field

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 7+ matches

Seattle Reign FC W53%
×Draw27%
San Diego Wave20%
✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.6%
Always home
44.7%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.6% correct across 576,853 matches, vs 44.7% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.9% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Seattle Reign FC W
1.46
San Diego Wave
0.78

Seattle Reign FC W creates 87% more chances

Season form · 11 home / 7 away

creates per match

Seattle Reign FC W
0.91
San Diego Wave
1.00

allows per match

Seattle Reign FC W
0.55
San Diego Wave
2.00

finishing

Seattle Reign FC W+0.00on par
San Diego Wave+0.00on par

Total goals

61%Under
  • Under61
  • Over39

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

58%No
  • No58
  • Yes42

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Seattle Reign FC W ↓

San Diego Wave →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–011%
0–18%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–016%
1–112%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–19%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–14%
3–22%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (16%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
89%11%1.5
65%35%2.5
39%61%3.5
19%81%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

Seattle Reign FC W or draw
80%
Seattle Reign FC W or San Diego Wave
73%
Draw or San Diego Wave
47%

Winning margin

Seattle Reign FC W wins by 2+
27%
San Diego Wave wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

Seattle Reign FC W 1+ goals
77%
Seattle Reign FC W 2+ goals
43%
Seattle Reign FC W 3+ goals
18%
San Diego Wave 1+ goals
54%
San Diego Wave 2+ goals
18%
San Diego Wave 3+ goals
4%

Draw no bet

Seattle Reign FC W (draw refunded)
73%
San Diego Wave (draw refunded)
27%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
29%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Seattle Reign FC W at home — creates 0.91, concedes 0.55 · 11 matches

San Diego Wave away — creates 1.00, concedes 2.00 · 7 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Seattle Reign FC W attack 0.91 + San Diego Wave defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 1.46

San Diego Wave attack 1.00 + Seattle Reign FC W defence 0.55 → ÷2 → 0.78

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 53%?"

Seattle Reign FC W scores more
53%
level
27%
San Diego Wave scores more
20%

Seattle Reign FC W at 53% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 53% does not mean "Seattle Reign FC W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Seattle Reign FC W vs San Diego Wave

Seattle Reign FC W beat San Diego Wave 3-1 in NWSL Women - Challenge Cup on April 15, 2022.

The match was played at Lumen Field in Seattle, Washington.