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Seattle Reign FC W vs Racing Louisville W — NWSL Women 2025

Seattle Reign FC W
Seattle Reign FC W
FT
2 – 1
HT: 2 – 0
Racing Louisville W
Racing Louisville W
N. Mondesir 41'
M. Mercado 10'
M. Blackburn 90'
3/28/2026NWSL WomenNWSL Women · Group StageOne Spokane Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 23+ matches

Seattle Reign FC W45%
×Draw26%
Racing Louisville W29%
✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
48.6%
Always home
43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Seattle Reign FC W
1.43
Racing Louisville W
1.09

Seattle Reign FC W creates 31% more chances

Season form · 26 home / 23 away

creates per match

Seattle Reign FC W
1.08
Racing Louisville W
1.22

allows per match

Seattle Reign FC W
0.96
Racing Louisville W
1.78

finishing

Seattle Reign FC W+0.00on par
Racing Louisville W+0.00on par

Total goals

54%Under
  • Under54
  • Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

50%No
  • No50
  • Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Seattle Reign FC W ↓

Racing Louisville W →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–19%
0–25%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
72%28%2.5
46%54%3.5
25%75%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Seattle Reign FC W or draw
71%
Seattle Reign FC W or Racing Louisville W
74%
Draw or Racing Louisville W
55%

Winning margin

Seattle Reign FC W wins by 2+
22%
Racing Louisville W wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Seattle Reign FC W 1+ goals
76%
Seattle Reign FC W 2+ goals
42%
Seattle Reign FC W 3+ goals
17%
Racing Louisville W 1+ goals
66%
Racing Louisville W 2+ goals
30%
Racing Louisville W 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Seattle Reign FC W (draw refunded)
61%
Racing Louisville W (draw refunded)
39%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
38%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Seattle Reign FC W at home — creates 1.08, concedes 0.96 · 26 matches

Racing Louisville W away — creates 1.22, concedes 1.78 · 23 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Seattle Reign FC W attack 1.08 + Racing Louisville W defence 1.78 → ÷2 → 1.43

Racing Louisville W attack 1.22 + Seattle Reign FC W defence 0.96 → ÷2 → 1.09

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Seattle Reign FC W scores more
45%
level
26%
Racing Louisville W scores more
29%

Seattle Reign FC W at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Seattle Reign FC W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

1
C. DickeySeattle Reign FC WSeattle Reign FC W · G
8.2

Match Events

10'
M. Mercado↳ S. Meza
41'
N. Mondesir↳ A. McCammon
63'
Macey Hodge
65'
A. McKeen← T. White
69'
B. Ratcliffe← H. Ward
69'
S. Menti← E. Adames
77'
R. Hill← E. Hase
77'
A. Ciorbu← M. Hodge
79'
A. James-Turner← A. McCammon
84'
R. Brown← P. McClernon
86'
M. Blackburn← K. Fischer
90'
M. Blackburn↳ S. Weber

Possession

56%Seattle

Shots

6Seattle

Pass accuracy

51%Seattle

Statistics

SeattleRacing
Overview
56%Possession44%
6Total Shots19
0.43Expected Goals (xG)1.94
1Corners2
10Fouls11
Shots
6Total Shots19
2On Target6
2Off Target7
2Blocked6
3Inside Box13
3Outside Box6
Passing
56%Possession44%
439Total Passes333
366Accurate Passes262
83%Pass Accuracy79%
Goalkeeping
5Saves0
Discipline
10Fouls11
0Yellow Cards1
1Offsides2

NWSL Women: Seattle Reign FC W 2–1 Racing Louisville W

Seattle Reign FC W beat Racing Louisville W 2-1 in NWSL Women on March 28, 2026.

Goals: M. Mercado (10'), N. Mondesir (41'), M. Blackburn (90').

Seattle Reign FC W controlled possession (56%) and registered 6 shots to 19.

The match was played at One Spokane Stadium in Spokane.