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Seattle Reign FC W vs Racing Louisville W — NWSL Women 2025

Seattle Reign FC W
Seattle Reign FC W
FT
1 – 1
HT: 1 – 0
Racing Louisville W
Racing Louisville W
B. Balcer 10' (pen)
R. Turner 90+7'
6/23/2024NWSL WomenNWSL Women · Round 11Lumen Field

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 25+ matches

Seattle Reign FC W44%
×Draw27%
Racing Louisville W29%
✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
48.6%
Always home
43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Seattle Reign FC W
1.34
Racing Louisville W
1.03

Seattle Reign FC W creates 30% more chances

Season form · 30 home / 25 away

creates per match

Seattle Reign FC W
1.00
Racing Louisville W
1.16

allows per match

Seattle Reign FC W
0.90
Racing Louisville W
1.68

finishing

Seattle Reign FC W+0.00on par
Racing Louisville W+0.00on par

Total goals

58%Under
  • Under58
  • Over42

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

53%No
  • No53
  • Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Seattle Reign FC W ↓

Racing Louisville W →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–110%
0–25%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–113%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–24%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
68%32%2.5
42%58%3.5
21%79%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

Seattle Reign FC W or draw
71%
Seattle Reign FC W or Racing Louisville W
73%
Draw or Racing Louisville W
56%

Winning margin

Seattle Reign FC W wins by 2+
20%
Racing Louisville W wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Seattle Reign FC W 1+ goals
74%
Seattle Reign FC W 2+ goals
39%
Seattle Reign FC W 3+ goals
15%
Racing Louisville W 1+ goals
64%
Racing Louisville W 2+ goals
28%
Racing Louisville W 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Seattle Reign FC W (draw refunded)
60%
Racing Louisville W (draw refunded)
40%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
35%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Seattle Reign FC W at home — creates 1.00, concedes 0.90 · 30 matches

Racing Louisville W away — creates 1.16, concedes 1.68 · 25 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Seattle Reign FC W attack 1.00 + Racing Louisville W defence 1.68 → ÷2 → 1.34

Racing Louisville W attack 1.16 + Seattle Reign FC W defence 0.90 → ÷2 → 1.03

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Seattle Reign FC W scores more
44%
level
27%
Racing Louisville W scores more
29%

Seattle Reign FC W at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Seattle Reign FC W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

10
J. FishlockSeattle Reign FC WSeattle Reign FC W · M
7.9

Match Events

9'
Arin Wright
9'
Arin WrightCard upgrade
10'
B. BalcerPenalty
31'
Taylor Kornieck
45+12'
Jordyn Huitema
45'
E. Jean← T. Flint
58'
R. Turner← E. Bahr
58'
K. Fischer← S. DeMelo
62'
V. Latsko← T. King
62'
S. Holmes← R. Brown
62'
O. Van der Jagt← B. Balcer
74'
A. Cook← L. Barnes
80'
P. Goins← E. Sears
86'
N. Stanton← Quinn
90+4'
O. Athens← Ji So-Yun
90+7'
R. Turner↳ J. Howell

Possession

62%Seattle

Shots

12Seattle

Pass accuracy

52%Seattle

Statistics

SeattleRacing
Overview
62%Possession38%
12Total Shots5
7Corners1
11Fouls6
Shots
12Total Shots5
3On Target3
5Off Target2
4Blocked0
10Inside Box2
2Outside Box3
Passing
62%Possession38%
487Total Passes305
420Accurate Passes239
86%Pass Accuracy78%
Goalkeeping
3Saves2
Discipline
11Fouls6
1Yellow Cards1
0Red Cards1
0Offsides3

Match Recap: Seattle Reign FC W vs Racing Louisville W

Seattle Reign FC W and Racing Louisville W drew 1-1 in NWSL Women on June 23, 2024.

Goals: B. Balcer (10' pen), R. Turner (90+7').

Seattle Reign FC W controlled possession (62%) and registered 12 shots to 5.

The match was played at Lumen Field in Seattle, Washington.