Seattle Reign FC W 0–1 Racing Louisville W

Seattle Reign FC W

FT

0 – 1

HT: 0 – 1

Racing Louisville W

9/7/2023

NWSL Women - Challenge Cup · Semi-finalsLumen Field

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 10+ matches

Seattle Reign FC W40%

×Draw36%

Racing Louisville W24%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Seattle Reign FC WExpected goals in this matchRacing Louisville W

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

0.91

0.63

Seattle Reign FC W

0.91

Racing Louisville W

0.63

Seattle Reign FC W creates 44% more chances

Season form · 11 home / 10 away

0.91

creates per match

0.70

0.55

allows per match

0.90

creates per match

Seattle Reign FC W

0.91

Racing Louisville W

0.70

allows per match

Seattle Reign FC W

0.55

Racing Louisville W

0.90

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Seattle Reign FC W+0.00on par

Racing Louisville W+0.00on par

Total goals

Under80
Over20

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No72
Yes28

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Seattle Reign FC W ↓

Racing Louisville W →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–021%

0–114%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–020%

1–112%

1–24%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–09%

2–16%

2–22%

2–30%

2–40%

3

3–03%

3–12%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–10%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 0–0 (21%) · grid covers 100% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

79%21%1.5

46%54%2.5

20%80%3.5

7%93%4.5

2%98%

Double chance

Seattle Reign FC W or draw

76%

Seattle Reign FC W or Racing Louisville W

64%

Draw or Racing Louisville W

60%

Winning margin

Seattle Reign FC W wins by 2+

15%

Racing Louisville W wins by 2+

6%

Team goals

Seattle Reign FC W 1+ goals

60%

Seattle Reign FC W 2+ goals

23%

Seattle Reign FC W 3+ goals

6%

Racing Louisville W 1+ goals

47%

Racing Louisville W 2+ goals

13%

Racing Louisville W 3+ goals

3%

Draw no bet

Seattle Reign FC W (draw refunded)

63%

Racing Louisville W (draw refunded)

37%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

16%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Seattle Reign FC W at home — creates 0.91, concedes 0.55 · 11 matches

Racing Louisville W away — creates 0.70, concedes 0.90 · 10 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Seattle Reign FC W attack 0.91 + Racing Louisville W defence 0.90 → ÷2 → 0.91

Racing Louisville W attack 0.70 + Seattle Reign FC W defence 0.55 → ÷2 → 0.63

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Seattle Reign FC W scores more

40%

level

36%

Racing Louisville W scores more

24%

Seattle Reign FC W at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Seattle Reign FC W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff