Seattle Reign FC W 1–0 Portland Thorns W

Seattle Reign FC W

FT

1 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Portland Thorns W

M. G. Dahlien 4'

4/19/2025

NWSL Women · Round 5Lumen Field

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 26+ matches

Seattle Reign FC W44%

×Draw28%

Portland Thorns W28%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Seattle Reign FC WExpected goals in this matchPortland Thorns W

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.31

1.00

Seattle Reign FC W

1.31

Portland Thorns W

1.00

Seattle Reign FC W creates 31% more chances

Season form · 26 home / 26 away

1.08

creates per match

1.04

0.96

allows per match

1.54

creates per match

Seattle Reign FC W

1.08

Portland Thorns W

1.04

allows per match

Seattle Reign FC W

0.96

Portland Thorns W

1.54

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Seattle Reign FC W+0.00on par

Portland Thorns W+0.00on par

Total goals

Under59
Over41

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No54
Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Seattle Reign FC W ↓

Portland Thorns W →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–010%

0–110%

0–25%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–013%

1–113%

1–27%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–09%

2–19%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

90%10%1.5

67%33%2.5

41%59%3.5

20%80%4.5

8%92%

Double chance

Seattle Reign FC W or draw

72%

Seattle Reign FC W or Portland Thorns W

72%

Draw or Portland Thorns W

56%

Winning margin

Seattle Reign FC W wins by 2+

20%

Portland Thorns W wins by 2+

10%

Team goals

Seattle Reign FC W 1+ goals

73%

Seattle Reign FC W 2+ goals

38%

Seattle Reign FC W 3+ goals

14%

Portland Thorns W 1+ goals

63%

Portland Thorns W 2+ goals

26%

Portland Thorns W 3+ goals

8%

Draw no bet

Seattle Reign FC W (draw refunded)

61%

Portland Thorns W (draw refunded)

39%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

33%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Seattle Reign FC W at home — creates 1.08, concedes 0.96 · 26 matches

Portland Thorns W away — creates 1.04, concedes 1.54 · 26 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Seattle Reign FC W attack 1.08 + Portland Thorns W defence 1.54 → ÷2 → 1.31

Portland Thorns W attack 1.04 + Seattle Reign FC W defence 0.96 → ÷2 → 1.00

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Seattle Reign FC W scores more

44%

level

28%

Portland Thorns W scores more

28%

Seattle Reign FC W at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Seattle Reign FC W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

1

C. Dickey

Seattle Reign FC W · G

7.9

Match Events

4'

M. G. Dahlien↳ L. Biyendolo

17'

Reyna Reyes

45+1'

Kaitlyn Torpey

46'

M. Mckenzie← K. Torpey

65'

Ji So-Yun← N. Mondesir

65'

C. Hanks← P. Linnehan

65'

D. Castellanos← H. Sugita

77'

Jayden Perry

78'

M. Alidou d'Anjou← O. Moultrie

80'

E. Adames← L. Biyendolo

83'

P. Tordin← R. Reyes

86'

A. Crnogorcevic← J. Huitema

86'

S. Holmes← L. Barnes

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

SeattlePortland

Overview

46%Possession54%

9Total Shots13

0Corners7

8Fouls14

Shots

9Total Shots13

5On Target4

3Off Target7

1Blocked2

7Inside Box6

2Outside Box7

Passing

46%Possession54%

378Total Passes439

259Accurate Passes325

69%Pass Accuracy74%

Goalkeeping

4Saves4

Discipline

8Fouls14

0Yellow Cards3

2Offsides1