Portland Thorns W 4–2 Seattle Reign FC W

Portland Thorns W

FT

4 – 2

HT: 2 – 1

Seattle Reign FC W

P. Tordin 65'

R. Reyes 55'

R. Turner 26'

S. Coffey 18' (pen)

J. Fishlock 64'

E. Adames 3'

8/10/2025

NWSL Women · Round 15Providence Park

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 22+ matches

Portland Thorns W57%

×Draw24%

Seattle Reign FC W19%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Portland Thorns WExpected goals in this matchSeattle Reign FC W

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.71

0.88

Portland Thorns W

1.71

Seattle Reign FC W

0.88

Portland Thorns W creates 94% more chances

Season form · 22 home / 29 away

1.86

creates per match

1.07

0.68

allows per match

1.55

creates per match

Portland Thorns W

1.86

Seattle Reign FC W

1.07

allows per match

Portland Thorns W

0.68

Seattle Reign FC W

1.55

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Portland Thorns W+0.00on par

Seattle Reign FC W+0.00on par

Total goals

Under52
Over48

Close call

Both teams score

No52
Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Portland Thorns W ↓

Seattle Reign FC W →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–17%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–013%

1–111%

1–25%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–011%

2–110%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–06%

3–16%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–03%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

73%27%2.5

48%52%3.5

26%74%4.5

12%88%

Double chance

Portland Thorns W or draw

81%

Portland Thorns W or Seattle Reign FC W

76%

Draw or Seattle Reign FC W

43%

Winning margin

Portland Thorns W wins by 2+

32%

Seattle Reign FC W wins by 2+

6%

Team goals

Portland Thorns W 1+ goals

82%

Portland Thorns W 2+ goals

51%

Portland Thorns W 3+ goals

24%

Seattle Reign FC W 1+ goals

59%

Seattle Reign FC W 2+ goals

22%

Seattle Reign FC W 3+ goals

6%

Draw no bet

Portland Thorns W (draw refunded)

75%

Seattle Reign FC W (draw refunded)

25%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

37%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Portland Thorns W at home — creates 1.86, concedes 0.68 · 22 matches

Seattle Reign FC W away — creates 1.07, concedes 1.55 · 29 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Portland Thorns W attack 1.86 + Seattle Reign FC W defence 1.55 → ÷2 → 1.71

Seattle Reign FC W attack 1.07 + Portland Thorns W defence 0.68 → ÷2 → 0.88

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 57%?"

Portland Thorns W scores more

57%

level

24%

Seattle Reign FC W scores more

19%

Portland Thorns W at 57% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 57% does not mean "Portland Thorns W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

66

R. Turner

Portland Thorns W · F

8.3

Match Events

3'

E. Adames↳ J. Fishlock

18'

S. CoffeyPenalty

26'

R. Turner↳ J. Fleming

55'

R. Reyes

60'

L. Barnes← J. Bugg

60'

L. Biyendolo← J. Huitema

64'

J. Fishlock↳ M. Curry

65'

P. Tordin↳ H. Sugita

67'

M. Fishel← S. Menti

75'

D. Castellanos← P. Tordin

75'

K. Torpey← M. Mckenzie

78'

N. Mondesir← M. G. Dahlien

78'

Ji So-Yun← J. Fishlock

84'

P. Linnehan← O. Moultrie

84'

M. Alidou d'Anjou← J. Fleming

84'

Daiane← R. Turner

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

PortlandSeattle

Overview

40%Possession60%

23Total Shots11

4Corners5

5Fouls11

Shots

23Total Shots11

11On Target3

9Off Target3

3Blocked5

14Inside Box9

9Outside Box2

Passing

40%Possession60%

300Total Passes442

226Accurate Passes368

75%Pass Accuracy83%

Goalkeeping

1Saves7

Discipline

5Fouls11

2Offsides1