Seattle Reign FC W 0–0 Portland Thorns W

Seattle Reign FC W

FT

0 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Portland Thorns W

8/6/2023

NWSL Women - Challenge Cup · Group Stage - 4Lumen Field

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 11+ matches

Seattle Reign FC W39%

×Draw38%

Portland Thorns W23%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Seattle Reign FC WExpected goals in this matchPortland Thorns W

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

0.83

0.56

Seattle Reign FC W

0.83

Portland Thorns W

0.56

Seattle Reign FC W creates 48% more chances

Season form · 11 home / 12 away

0.91

creates per match

0.58

0.55

allows per match

0.75

creates per match

Seattle Reign FC W

0.91

Portland Thorns W

0.58

allows per match

Seattle Reign FC W

0.55

Portland Thorns W

0.75

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Seattle Reign FC W+0.00on par

Portland Thorns W+0.00on par

Total goals

Under84
Over16

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No76
Yes24

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Seattle Reign FC W ↓

Portland Thorns W →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–025%

0–114%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–021%

1–112%

1–23%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–09%

2–15%

2–21%

2–30%

2–40%

3

3–02%

3–11%

3–20%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–00%

4–10%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 0–0 (25%) · grid covers 100% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

75%25%1.5

40%60%2.5

16%84%3.5

5%95%4.5

1%99%

Double chance

Seattle Reign FC W or draw

77%

Seattle Reign FC W or Portland Thorns W

62%

Draw or Portland Thorns W

61%

Winning margin

Seattle Reign FC W wins by 2+

13%

Portland Thorns W wins by 2+

5%

Team goals

Seattle Reign FC W 1+ goals

56%

Seattle Reign FC W 2+ goals

20%

Seattle Reign FC W 3+ goals

5%

Portland Thorns W 1+ goals

43%

Portland Thorns W 2+ goals

11%

Portland Thorns W 3+ goals

2%

Draw no bet

Seattle Reign FC W (draw refunded)

63%

Portland Thorns W (draw refunded)

37%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

13%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Seattle Reign FC W at home — creates 0.91, concedes 0.55 · 11 matches

Portland Thorns W away — creates 0.58, concedes 0.75 · 12 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Seattle Reign FC W attack 0.91 + Portland Thorns W defence 0.75 → ÷2 → 0.83

Portland Thorns W attack 0.58 + Seattle Reign FC W defence 0.55 → ÷2 → 0.56

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Seattle Reign FC W scores more

39%

level

38%

Portland Thorns W scores more

23%

Seattle Reign FC W at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Seattle Reign FC W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff