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Seattle Reign FC W vs Bay FC W — NWSL Women 2025

Seattle Reign FC W
Seattle Reign FC W
Preview
00:00
Bay FC W
Bay FC W
9/13/2026NWSL WomenNWSL Women · Group StageLumen Field
42%
Seattle Reign FC W
model favours
42%29%29%

Seattle Reign FC W score first in only 17% of matches

brightest fact of this match

1–0
likely score
62%
under 2.5 goals
44%
both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 23+ matches

Seattle Reign FC W42%
×Draw29%
Bay FC W29%
✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
48.6%
Always home
43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Seattle Reign FC W
1.23
Bay FC W
0.97

Seattle Reign FC W creates 27% more chances

Season form · 29 home / 23 away

creates per match

Seattle Reign FC W
1.03
Bay FC W
1.00

allows per match

Seattle Reign FC W
0.93
Bay FC W
1.43

finishing

Seattle Reign FC W+0.00on par
Bay FC W+0.00on par

Total goals

62%Under
  • Under62
  • Over38

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

56%No
  • No56
  • Yes44

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Seattle Reign FC W ↓

Bay FC W →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–011%
0–111%
0–25%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–014%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–18%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
89%11%1.5
65%35%2.5
38%62%3.5
18%82%4.5
7%93%

Double chance

Seattle Reign FC W or draw
71%
Seattle Reign FC W or Bay FC W
71%
Draw or Bay FC W
58%

Winning margin

Seattle Reign FC W wins by 2+
19%
Bay FC W wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Seattle Reign FC W 1+ goals
71%
Seattle Reign FC W 2+ goals
35%
Seattle Reign FC W 3+ goals
13%
Bay FC W 1+ goals
62%
Bay FC W 2+ goals
25%
Bay FC W 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Seattle Reign FC W (draw refunded)
59%
Bay FC W (draw refunded)
41%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
31%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Seattle Reign FC W at home — creates 1.03, concedes 0.93 · 29 matches

Bay FC W away — creates 1.00, concedes 1.43 · 23 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Seattle Reign FC W attack 1.03 + Bay FC W defence 1.43 → ÷2 → 1.23

Bay FC W attack 1.00 + Seattle Reign FC W defence 0.93 → ÷2 → 0.97

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Seattle Reign FC W scores more
42%
level
29%
Bay FC W scores more
29%

Seattle Reign FC W at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Seattle Reign FC W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Insights

  • Both teams scored in 3 of the last 4 meetings
  • Bay FC W fall short of their xG (0.9 vs 2.2 expected)
  • Seattle Reign FC W fall short of their xG (1.0 vs 1.3 expected)

Based on historical data — not a prediction.

Style Matchup

Contrasting styles
Seattle Reign FC W
Balanced
Bay FC W
Attack-heavy
47%Possession51%
76%Pass accuracy78%
8.9Shots12.3
1.33xGBiggest gap2.18
Pass acc.ShotsxGBox shareShot acc.Defense
Seattle Reign FC WBay FC W

Head-to-head

4 previous meetings

0
Seattle Reign FC W
2
Draws
2
Bay FC W
Avg goals: 2.5BTTS: 75%
1–11–10–12–3

Playing styles from match stats. Historical H2H record. Not a prediction.

Form
W
WLLWL
W
WDLLL

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Seattle Reign FC W face Bay FC W (NWSL Women)

NWSL Women returns with Seattle Reign FC W hosting Bay FC W. Match starts September 13, 2026. Live commentary, lineups, and stats appear here from kickoff. Submit your prediction below for a chance to earn XP.

Seattle Reign FC W host Bay FC W at Lumen Field.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.