Seattle Reign FC W 0–1 Bay FC W: Result & Stats

Seattle Reign FC W

FT

0 – 1

HT: 0 – 1

Bay FC W

A. Oshoala 27' (pen)

9/29/2024

NWSL Women · Round 17Lumen Field

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 29+ matches

Seattle Reign FC W44%

×Draw27%

Bay FC W29%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Seattle Reign FC WExpected goals in this matchBay FC W

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.34

1.03

Seattle Reign FC W

1.34

Bay FC W

1.03

Seattle Reign FC W creates 30% more chances

Season form · 30 home / 29 away

1.00

creates per match

1.17

0.90

allows per match

1.69

creates per match

Seattle Reign FC W

1.00

Bay FC W

1.17

allows per match

Seattle Reign FC W

0.90

Bay FC W

1.69

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Seattle Reign FC W+0.00on par

Bay FC W+0.00on par

Total goals

Under58
Over42

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No53
Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Seattle Reign FC W ↓

Bay FC W →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–09%

0–110%

0–25%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–013%

1–113%

1–27%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–19%

2–24%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

68%32%2.5

42%58%3.5

21%79%4.5

9%91%

Double chance

Seattle Reign FC W or draw

71%

Seattle Reign FC W or Bay FC W

73%

Draw or Bay FC W

56%

Winning margin

Seattle Reign FC W wins by 2+

20%

Bay FC W wins by 2+

11%

Team goals

Seattle Reign FC W 1+ goals

74%

Seattle Reign FC W 2+ goals

39%

Seattle Reign FC W 3+ goals

15%

Bay FC W 1+ goals

64%

Bay FC W 2+ goals

28%

Bay FC W 3+ goals

9%

Draw no bet

Seattle Reign FC W (draw refunded)

60%

Bay FC W (draw refunded)

40%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

35%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Seattle Reign FC W at home — creates 1.00, concedes 0.90 · 30 matches

Bay FC W away — creates 1.17, concedes 1.69 · 29 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Seattle Reign FC W attack 1.00 + Bay FC W defence 1.69 → ÷2 → 1.34

Bay FC W attack 1.17 + Seattle Reign FC W defence 0.90 → ÷2 → 1.03

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Seattle Reign FC W scores more

44%

level

27%

Bay FC W scores more

29%

Seattle Reign FC W at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Seattle Reign FC W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

3

C. Dydasco

Bay FC W · D

7.7

Match Events

27'

A. OshoalaPenalty

46'

57'

58'

68'

68'

79'

N. Mondésir← A. Crnogorčević

86'

J. Howell← O. Athens

88'

D. Castellanos← T. Boade

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

SeattleBay

Overview

61%Possession39%

13Total Shots11

8Corners4

4Fouls9

Shots

13Total Shots11

3On Target6

7Off Target3

3Blocked2

7Inside Box7

6Outside Box4

Passing

61%Possession39%

563Total Passes358

449Accurate Passes265

80%Pass Accuracy74%

Goalkeeping

5Saves3

Discipline

4Fouls9

0Yellow Cards1