Bay FC W 3–2 Seattle Reign FC W: Result & Stats

Bay FC W

FT

3 – 2

HT: 0 – 1

Seattle Reign FC W

J. Anderson 87'

A. Loera 58'

K. Sharples 48'

B. Balcer 83'

K. Sharples 27' (OG)

4/15/2024

NWSL Women · Round 4PayPal Park

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 31+ matches

Bay FC W36%

×Draw26%

Seattle Reign FC W38%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Bay FC WExpected goals in this matchSeattle Reign FC W

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.31

1.35

Bay FC W

1.31

Seattle Reign FC W

1.35

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 31 home / 34 away

0.97

creates per match

1.26

1.45

allows per match

1.65

creates per match

Bay FC W

0.97

Seattle Reign FC W

1.26

allows per match

Bay FC W

1.45

Seattle Reign FC W

1.65

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Bay FC W+0.00on par

Seattle Reign FC W+0.00on par

Total goals

Under50
Over50

Close call

Both teams score

Yes54
No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Bay FC W ↓

Seattle Reign FC W →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–19%

0–26%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–09%

1–112%

1–28%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–18%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

74%26%2.5

50%50%3.5

28%72%4.5

13%87%

Double chance

Bay FC W or draw

62%

Bay FC W or Seattle Reign FC W

74%

Draw or Seattle Reign FC W

64%

Winning margin

Bay FC W wins by 2+

16%

Seattle Reign FC W wins by 2+

17%

Team goals

Bay FC W 1+ goals

73%

Bay FC W 2+ goals

38%

Bay FC W 3+ goals

14%

Seattle Reign FC W 1+ goals

74%

Seattle Reign FC W 2+ goals

39%

Seattle Reign FC W 3+ goals

15%

Draw no bet

Bay FC W (draw refunded)

49%

Seattle Reign FC W (draw refunded)

51%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

42%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Bay FC W at home — creates 0.97, concedes 1.45 · 31 matches

Seattle Reign FC W away — creates 1.26, concedes 1.65 · 34 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Bay FC W attack 0.97 + Seattle Reign FC W defence 1.65 → ÷2 → 1.31

Seattle Reign FC W attack 1.26 + Bay FC W defence 1.45 → ÷2 → 1.35

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Bay FC W scores more

36%

level

26%

Seattle Reign FC W scores more

38%

Seattle Reign FC W at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Seattle Reign FC W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

3

C. Dydasco

Bay FC W · D

7.7

Match Events

27'

K. SharplesOwn goal

48'

K. Sharples↳ E. Menges

58'

A. Loera

60'

L. Ivory← C. Dickey

63'

S. King← A. Malonson

72'

P. McClernon← L. Woodham

72'

Quinn← A. James-Turner

72'

V. Latsko← O. Van der Jagt

82'

J. Anderson← D. Bailey

82'

E. Adames← O. Athens

83'

B. Balcer↳ Ji So-Yun

87'

J. Anderson↳ S. King

90+5'

Asisat OshoalaGoal cancelled

90+8'

J. Beattie← A. Oshoala

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

BaySeattle

Overview

50%Possession50%

23Total Shots8

5Corners3

8Fouls5

Shots

23Total Shots8

7On Target3

11Off Target4

5Blocked1

15Inside Box7

8Outside Box1

Passing

50%Possession50%

507Total Passes506

415Accurate Passes386

82%Pass Accuracy76%

Goalkeeping

2Saves4

Discipline

8Fouls5

1Offsides1