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SD Raiders vs Hakoah Sydney City — New South Wales NPL 2 2026

SD Raiders
SD Raiders
FT
1 – 2
HT: 1 – 0
Hakoah Sydney City
Hakoah Sydney City
O. Velnic 33'
N. Chianese 89' (OG)
N. Tooley 76'
5/31/2025New South Wales NPL 2New South Wales NPL 2 · Round 17Ernie Smith Reserve

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 63+ matches

SD Raiders43%
×Draw23%
Hakoah Sydney City34%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

SD Raiders
1.71
Hakoah Sydney City
1.50

SD Raiders creates 14% more chances

Season form · 63 home / 75 away

creates per match

SD Raiders
1.70
Hakoah Sydney City
1.64

allows per match

SD Raiders
1.37
Hakoah Sydney City
1.72

finishing

SD Raiders+0.00on par
Hakoah Sydney City+0.00on par

Total goals

62%Over
  • Over62
  • Under38

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

64%Yes
  • Yes64
  • No36

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

SD Raiders ↓

Hakoah Sydney City →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–16%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–07%
1–110%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–27%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–15%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
83%17%2.5
62%38%3.5
40%60%4.5
22%78%

Double chance

SD Raiders or draw
66%
SD Raiders or Hakoah Sydney City
77%
Draw or Hakoah Sydney City
57%

Winning margin

SD Raiders wins by 2+
22%
Hakoah Sydney City wins by 2+
16%

Team goals

SD Raiders 1+ goals
82%
SD Raiders 2+ goals
51%
SD Raiders 3+ goals
24%
Hakoah Sydney City 1+ goals
78%
Hakoah Sydney City 2+ goals
44%
Hakoah Sydney City 3+ goals
19%

Draw no bet

SD Raiders (draw refunded)
56%
Hakoah Sydney City (draw refunded)
44%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
53%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

SD Raiders at home — creates 1.70, concedes 1.37 · 63 matches

Hakoah Sydney City away — creates 1.64, concedes 1.72 · 75 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

SD Raiders attack 1.70 + Hakoah Sydney City defence 1.72 → ÷2 → 1.71

Hakoah Sydney City attack 1.64 + SD Raiders defence 1.37 → ÷2 → 1.50

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

SD Raiders scores more
43%
level
23%
Hakoah Sydney City scores more
34%

SD Raiders at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "SD Raiders will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

33'
O. Velnic
76'
N. Tooley
89'
N. ChianeseOwn goal

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

SD Raiders 1 – 2 Hakoah Sydney City

Hakoah Sydney City beat SD Raiders 2-1 in New South Wales NPL 2 on May 31, 2025.

Goals: O. Velnic (33'), N. Tooley (76'), N. Chianese (89' o.g.).

The match was played at Ernie Smith Reserve in Moorebank.