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Hakoah Sydney City vs SD Raiders — New South Wales NPL 2 2026

Hakoah Sydney City
Hakoah Sydney City
FT
0 – 2
SD Raiders
SD Raiders
7/8/2023New South Wales NPL 2New South Wales NPL 2 · Round 23Hensley Athletic Field

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 65+ matches

Hakoah Sydney City41%
×Draw23%
SD Raiders36%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Hakoah Sydney City
1.71
SD Raiders
1.60

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 76 home / 65 away

creates per match

Hakoah Sydney City
1.84
SD Raiders
1.62

allows per match

Hakoah Sydney City
1.59
SD Raiders
1.58

finishing

Hakoah Sydney City+0.00on par
SD Raiders+0.00on par

Total goals

64%Over
  • Over64
  • Under36

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

65%Yes
  • Yes65
  • No35

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Hakoah Sydney City ↓

SD Raiders →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–16%
0–25%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–06%
1–110%
1–28%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–19%
2–27%
2–34%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–15%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
84%16%2.5
64%36%3.5
42%58%4.5
24%76%

Double chance

Hakoah Sydney City or draw
64%
Hakoah Sydney City or SD Raiders
77%
Draw or SD Raiders
59%

Winning margin

Hakoah Sydney City wins by 2+
21%
SD Raiders wins by 2+
18%

Team goals

Hakoah Sydney City 1+ goals
82%
Hakoah Sydney City 2+ goals
51%
Hakoah Sydney City 3+ goals
24%
SD Raiders 1+ goals
80%
SD Raiders 2+ goals
47%
SD Raiders 3+ goals
22%

Draw no bet

Hakoah Sydney City (draw refunded)
53%
SD Raiders (draw refunded)
47%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
55%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Hakoah Sydney City at home — creates 1.84, concedes 1.59 · 76 matches

SD Raiders away — creates 1.62, concedes 1.58 · 65 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Hakoah Sydney City attack 1.84 + SD Raiders defence 1.58 → ÷2 → 1.71

SD Raiders attack 1.62 + Hakoah Sydney City defence 1.59 → ÷2 → 1.60

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Hakoah Sydney City scores more
41%
level
23%
SD Raiders scores more
36%

Hakoah Sydney City at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Hakoah Sydney City will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Hakoah Sydney City vs SD Raiders

SD Raiders beat Hakoah Sydney City 2-0 in New South Wales NPL 2 on July 8, 2023.

The match was played at Hensley Athletic Field in Eastgardens, Botany Bay.