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SD Logroñés vs River Ebro — Tercera División RFEF - Group 16 2019

SD Logroñés
SD Logroñés
FT
4 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
River Ebro
River Ebro
12/4/2019Tercera División RFEF - Group 16Tercera División RFEF - Group 16 · Group 16 - 16Estadio Mundial 82

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 13+ matches

SD Logroñés69%
×Draw18%
River Ebro12%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

SD Logroñés
2.23
River Ebro
0.82

SD Logroñés creates 172% more chances

Season form · 13 home / 93 away

creates per match

SD Logroñés
2.54
River Ebro
1.09

allows per match

SD Logroñés
0.54
River Ebro
1.92

finishing

SD Logroñés+0.00on par
River Ebro+0.00on par

Total goals

58%Over
  • Over58
  • Under42

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

50%No
  • No50
  • Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

SD Logroñés ↓

River Ebro →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–14%
0–22%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–011%
1–19%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–012%
2–110%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–09%
3–17%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–05%
4–14%
4–22%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (12%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
81%19%2.5
58%42%3.5
36%64%4.5
19%81%

Double chance

SD Logroñés or draw
88%
SD Logroñés or River Ebro
82%
Draw or River Ebro
31%

Winning margin

SD Logroñés wins by 2+
45%
River Ebro wins by 2+
4%

Team goals

SD Logroñés 1+ goals
89%
SD Logroñés 2+ goals
65%
SD Logroñés 3+ goals
38%
River Ebro 1+ goals
56%
River Ebro 2+ goals
20%
River Ebro 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

SD Logroñés (draw refunded)
85%
River Ebro (draw refunded)
15%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
41%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

SD Logroñés at home — creates 2.54, concedes 0.54 · 13 matches

River Ebro away — creates 1.09, concedes 1.92 · 93 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

SD Logroñés attack 2.54 + River Ebro defence 1.92 → ÷2 → 2.23

River Ebro attack 1.09 + SD Logroñés defence 0.54 → ÷2 → 0.82

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 69%?"

SD Logroñés scores more
69%
level
18%
River Ebro scores more
12%

SD Logroñés at 69% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 69% does not mean "SD Logroñés will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Tercera División RFEF - Group 16: SD Logroñés 4–0 River Ebro

SD Logroñés beat River Ebro 4-0 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 16 on December 4, 2019.

The match was played at Estadio Mundial 82 in Logroño.