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River Ebro vs SD Logroñés — Tercera División RFEF - Group 16 2019

River Ebro
River Ebro
CANC
00:00
SD Logroñés
SD Logroñés
4/26/2020Tercera División RFEF - Group 16Tercera División RFEF - Group 16 · Group 16 - 35Estadio San Miguel

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

River Ebro17%
×Draw23%
SD Logroñés60%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

River Ebro
0.79
SD Logroñés
1.75

SD Logroñés creates 122% more chances

Season form · 93 home / 15 away

creates per match

River Ebro
1.24
SD Logroñés
2.33

allows per match

River Ebro
1.16
SD Logroñés
0.33

finishing

River Ebro+0.00on par
SD Logroñés+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Under
  • Under53
  • Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

55%No
  • No55
  • Yes45

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

River Ebro ↓

SD Logroñés →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–114%
0–212%
0–37%
0–43%
1
1–06%
1–111%
1–210%
1–36%
1–42%
2
2–02%
2–14%
2–24%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–01%
3–11%
3–21%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (14%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
72%28%2.5
47%53%3.5
25%75%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

River Ebro or draw
40%
River Ebro or SD Logroñés
77%
Draw or SD Logroñés
83%

Winning margin

River Ebro wins by 2+
5%
SD Logroñés wins by 2+
34%

Team goals

River Ebro 1+ goals
55%
River Ebro 2+ goals
19%
River Ebro 3+ goals
5%
SD Logroñés 1+ goals
83%
SD Logroñés 2+ goals
52%
SD Logroñés 3+ goals
25%

Draw no bet

River Ebro (draw refunded)
22%
SD Logroñés (draw refunded)
78%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
34%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

River Ebro at home — creates 1.24, concedes 1.16 · 93 matches

SD Logroñés away — creates 2.33, concedes 0.33 · 15 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

River Ebro attack 1.24 + SD Logroñés defence 0.33 → ÷2 → 0.79

SD Logroñés attack 2.33 + River Ebro defence 1.16 → ÷2 → 1.75

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 60%?"

River Ebro scores more
17%
level
23%
SD Logroñés scores more
60%

SD Logroñés at 60% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 60% does not mean "SD Logroñés will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

River Ebro vs SD Logroñés — Match Preview

River Ebro face SD Logroñés on April 26, 2020 in this Tercera División RFEF - Group 16 fixture. Get live scores, lineups, and real-time match statistics here when the game starts.

River Ebro host SD Logroñés at Estadio San Miguel.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.