SD Logroñés vs Pradejón: Preview & Prediction

SD Logroñés

CANC

22:00

Pradejón

5/2/2020

Tercera División RFEF - Group 16 · Group 16 - 36Estadio Mundial 82

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 13+ matches

SD Logroñés68%

×Draw19%

Pradejón13%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

SD LogroñésExpected goals in this matchPradejón

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.23

0.85

SD Logroñés

2.23

Pradejón

0.85

SD Logroñés creates 162% more chances

Season form · 13 home / 46 away

2.54

creates per match

1.17

0.54

allows per match

1.91

creates per match

SD Logroñés

2.54

Pradejón

1.17

allows per match

SD Logroñés

0.54

Pradejón

1.91

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

SD Logroñés+0.00on par

Pradejón+0.00on par

Total goals

Over59
Under41

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes51
No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

SD Logroñés ↓

Pradejón →

0–05%

0–14%

0–22%

0–30%

0–40%

1–010%

1–19%

1–24%

1–31%

1–40%

2–012%

2–110%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3–09%

3–17%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4–05%

4–14%

4–22%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (12%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

81%19%2.5

59%41%3.5

37%63%4.5

19%81%

Double chance

SD Logroñés or draw

87%

SD Logroñés or Pradejón

81%

Draw or Pradejón

32%

Winning margin

SD Logroñés wins by 2+

45%

Pradejón wins by 2+

Team goals

SD Logroñés 1+ goals

89%

SD Logroñés 2+ goals

65%

SD Logroñés 3+ goals

38%

Pradejón 1+ goals

57%

Pradejón 2+ goals

21%

Pradejón 3+ goals

Draw no bet

SD Logroñés (draw refunded)

84%

Pradejón (draw refunded)

16%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

42%

Both score & under 3

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

SD Logroñés at home — creates 2.54, concedes 0.54 · 13 matches

Pradejón away — creates 1.17, concedes 1.91 · 46 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

SD Logroñés attack 2.54 + Pradejón defence 1.91 → ÷2 → 2.23

Pradejón attack 1.17 + SD Logroñés defence 0.54 → ÷2 → 0.85

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 68%?"

SD Logroñés scores more

68%

level

19%

Pradejón scores more

13%

SD Logroñés at 68% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 68% does not mean "SD Logroñés will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

SD Logroñés vs Pradejón — Match Preview

SD Logroñés face Pradejón on May 2, 2020 in this Tercera División RFEF - Group 16 fixture. Get live scores, lineups, and real-time match statistics here when the game starts.

SD Logroñés host Pradejón at Estadio Mundial 82.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.

SD Logroñés vs Pradejón — Tercera División RFEF - Group 16 2019

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Head to Head

SD Logroñés vs Pradejón — Match Preview