Pradejón 1–2 SD Logroñés: Result & Stats

Pradejón

1 – 2

HT: 0 – 1

SD Logroñés

12/15/2019

Tercera División RFEF - Group 16 · Group 16 - 17Polideportivo Municipal Pradejón

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Pradejón15%

×Draw22%

SD Logroñés63%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

PradejónExpected goals in this matchSD Logroñés

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

0.77

1.86

Pradejón

0.77

SD Logroñés

1.86

SD Logroñés creates 142% more chances

Season form · 46 home / 15 away

1.20

creates per match

2.33

1.39

allows per match

0.33

creates per match

Pradejón

1.20

SD Logroñés

2.33

allows per match

Pradejón

1.39

SD Logroñés

0.33

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Pradejón+0.00on par

SD Logroñés+0.00on par

Total goals

Under51
Over49

Close call

Both teams score

No55
Yes45

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Pradejón ↓

SD Logroñés →

0–07%

0–113%

0–213%

0–38%

0–44%

1–06%

1–110%

1–210%

1–36%

1–43%

2–02%

2–14%

2–24%

2–32%

2–41%

3–01%

3–11%

3–21%

3–31%

3–40%

4–00%

4–10%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (13%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

74%26%2.5

49%51%3.5

27%73%4.5

12%88%

Double chance

Pradejón or draw

37%

Pradejón or SD Logroñés

78%

Draw or SD Logroñés

85%

Winning margin

Pradejón wins by 2+

SD Logroñés wins by 2+

37%

Team goals

Pradejón 1+ goals

54%

Pradejón 2+ goals

18%

Pradejón 3+ goals

SD Logroñés 1+ goals

84%

SD Logroñés 2+ goals

55%

SD Logroñés 3+ goals

28%

Draw no bet

Pradejón (draw refunded)

19%

SD Logroñés (draw refunded)

81%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

35%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Pradejón at home — creates 1.20, concedes 1.39 · 46 matches

SD Logroñés away — creates 2.33, concedes 0.33 · 15 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Pradejón attack 1.20 + SD Logroñés defence 0.33 → ÷2 → 0.77

SD Logroñés attack 2.33 + Pradejón defence 1.39 → ÷2 → 1.86

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 63%?"

Pradejón scores more

15%

level

22%

SD Logroñés scores more

63%

SD Logroñés at 63% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 63% does not mean "SD Logroñés will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff