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SD Logroñés vs Gimnastic — Primera División RFEF - Group 1 2019

SD Logroñés
SD Logroñés
FT
0 – 2
HT: 0 – 1
Gimnastic
Gimnastic
12/17/2023Primera División RFEF - Group 1Primera División RFEF - Group 1 · Group 1 - 17Estadio Nuevo Municipal Las Gaunas

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 37+ matches

SD Logroñés36%
×Draw30%
Gimnastic34%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

SD Logroñés
1.04
Gimnastic
1.01

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 37 home / 38 away

creates per match

SD Logroñés
1.03
Gimnastic
0.89

allows per match

SD Logroñés
1.14
Gimnastic
1.05

finishing

SD Logroñés+0.00on par
Gimnastic+0.00on par

Total goals

66%Under
  • Under66
  • Over34

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

59%No
  • No59
  • Yes41

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

SD Logroñés ↓

Gimnastic →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–013%
0–113%
0–27%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–013%
1–114%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–17%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–02%
3–12%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
87%13%1.5
61%39%2.5
34%66%3.5
15%85%4.5
6%94%

Double chance

SD Logroñés or draw
66%
SD Logroñés or Gimnastic
70%
Draw or Gimnastic
64%

Winning margin

SD Logroñés wins by 2+
14%
Gimnastic wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

SD Logroñés 1+ goals
65%
SD Logroñés 2+ goals
28%
SD Logroñés 3+ goals
9%
Gimnastic 1+ goals
64%
Gimnastic 2+ goals
27%
Gimnastic 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

SD Logroñés (draw refunded)
51%
Gimnastic (draw refunded)
49%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
28%
Both score & under 3
14%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

SD Logroñés at home — creates 1.03, concedes 1.14 · 37 matches

Gimnastic away — creates 0.89, concedes 1.05 · 38 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

SD Logroñés attack 1.03 + Gimnastic defence 1.05 → ÷2 → 1.04

Gimnastic attack 0.89 + SD Logroñés defence 1.14 → ÷2 → 1.01

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 36%?"

SD Logroñés scores more
36%
level
30%
Gimnastic scores more
34%

SD Logroñés at 36% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 36% does not mean "SD Logroñés will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Primera División RFEF - Group 1: SD Logroñés 0–2 Gimnastic

Gimnastic beat SD Logroñés 2-0 in Primera División RFEF - Group 1 on December 17, 2023.

The match was played at Estadio Nuevo Municipal Las Gaunas in Logroño.