Gimnastic 2–1 SD Logroñés: Result & Stats

Gimnastic

FT

2 – 1

HT: 1 – 1

SD Logroñés

5/11/2024

Primera División RFEF - Group 1 · Group 1 - 36Nou Estadi Costa Daurada

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 38+ matches

Gimnastic57%

×Draw25%

SD Logroñés18%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

GimnasticExpected goals in this matchSD Logroñés

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.59

0.75

Gimnastic

1.59

SD Logroñés

0.75

Gimnastic creates 112% more chances

Season form · 38 home / 38 away

1.71

creates per match

0.79

0.71

allows per match

1.47

creates per match

Gimnastic

1.71

SD Logroñés

0.79

allows per match

Gimnastic

0.71

SD Logroñés

1.47

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Gimnastic+0.00on par

SD Logroñés+0.00on par

Total goals

Under59
Over41

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No58
Yes42

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Gimnastic ↓

SD Logroñés →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–010%

0–17%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–015%

1–112%

1–24%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–012%

2–19%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–06%

3–15%

3–22%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–03%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

90%10%1.5

68%32%2.5

41%59%3.5

21%79%4.5

9%91%

Double chance

Gimnastic or draw

82%

Gimnastic or SD Logroñés

75%

Draw or SD Logroñés

43%

Winning margin

Gimnastic wins by 2+

31%

SD Logroñés wins by 2+

5%

Team goals

Gimnastic 1+ goals

80%

Gimnastic 2+ goals

47%

Gimnastic 3+ goals

21%

SD Logroñés 1+ goals

53%

SD Logroñés 2+ goals

17%

SD Logroñés 3+ goals

4%

Draw no bet

Gimnastic (draw refunded)

77%

SD Logroñés (draw refunded)

23%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

30%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Gimnastic at home — creates 1.71, concedes 0.71 · 38 matches

SD Logroñés away — creates 0.79, concedes 1.47 · 38 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Gimnastic attack 1.71 + SD Logroñés defence 1.47 → ÷2 → 1.59

SD Logroñés attack 0.79 + Gimnastic defence 0.71 → ÷2 → 0.75

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 57%?"

Gimnastic scores more

57%

level

25%

SD Logroñés scores more

18%

Gimnastic at 57% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 57% does not mean "Gimnastic will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff